邻里效应:2010-2022年拉脱维亚议会选举中的重要因素

IF 0.8 Q2 MATHEMATICS
L. S. Zhirnova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了2010-2022年拉脱维亚议会选举中的邻里效应问题。虽然民族语言的分裂仍然是投票的主要因素,但目前拉脱维亚的选举制度正在转变,因为俄语选举格局的分裂。因此,考虑包括邻里效应在内的其他投票因素变得越来越重要。为了证明其在选举制度中的重要性,我们使用回归分析:在自变量列表中加入政党在邻近地区的平均支持率时,将经典模型与空间滞后模型进行比较。在所有具有可接受的概率值的情况下,考虑空间滞后增加了回归模型的解释力和质量。在2022年的大选中,最具邻里效应的是进步党,发展/为!2018年和2011年分别是绿党和农民联盟。邻里效应也影响了对所谓的俄罗斯政党的投票,包括和谐党、拉脱维亚俄罗斯联盟和稳定党,但它不能解释超过百分之几的支持分散,选民的民族语言结构在这些情况下至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Neighbourhood Effect as a Significant Factor at the Latvian Parliamentary Elections in 2010-2022
The article tackles the issue of the neighbourhood effect in the Latvian Saeima elections in 2010–2022. Although the ethnolinguistic cleavage remains the main voting factor, currently the Latvian electoral system is transforming due to the fragmentation of the Russian-speaking electoral landscape. As a result, it is increasingly important to take into account other voting factors including the neighbourhood effect. To prove its importance in the electoral system the regression analysis is used: the classical model is compared with the spatial lag model when the average support of the party in neighbouring regions is added to the list of independent variables. In all the cases with an acceptable probability value accounting for the spatial lag has increased the explanatory power and the quality of the regression models. The strongest neighbourhood effect has been identified for the Progressive party in 2022, the Development/For! In 2018 and the Greens and Farmers Union in 2011. The neighbourhood effect has also influenced the voting for the so-called Russian parties including the Harmony, the Larvian Russian Union and the Stability, however it has not explained more than a few percent of the dispersion of their support, with the etholinguistic structure of electorate being of paramount importance in these cases.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
28.60%
发文量
19
审稿时长
8 weeks
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