{"title":"重新构想不断缩小的芬兰城市的未来发展轨迹","authors":"Annamari Kiviaho, Saija Toivonen","doi":"10.1080/13563475.2023.2259109","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Shrinking cities are seen as places with poor development prospects, as places that should adjust to given future realities of shrinkage. However, because the future is open to many alternative possibilities, shrinking cities also have a variety of alternative futures to which earlier research has paid less attention. This study aims to identify and analyse the alternative future development trajectories of shrinking cities. In this study, the futures research method called futures wheel is utilized to analyse possible future consequences of 24 different forces of change that can steer the future development of shrinking cities. By combining the futures wheel method with qualitative data from eight shrinking Finnish cities, we can reveal possible future development paths that may result from the forces. Overall, our results show that shrinking cities have various alternative future development trajectories leading to various outcomes. Some of the forces may intensify the current negative effects caused by urban shrinkage. By contrast, other forces can radically change future development.","PeriodicalId":46688,"journal":{"name":"International Planning Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Reimagining alternative future development trajectories of shrinking Finnish cities\",\"authors\":\"Annamari Kiviaho, Saija Toivonen\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/13563475.2023.2259109\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Shrinking cities are seen as places with poor development prospects, as places that should adjust to given future realities of shrinkage. However, because the future is open to many alternative possibilities, shrinking cities also have a variety of alternative futures to which earlier research has paid less attention. This study aims to identify and analyse the alternative future development trajectories of shrinking cities. In this study, the futures research method called futures wheel is utilized to analyse possible future consequences of 24 different forces of change that can steer the future development of shrinking cities. By combining the futures wheel method with qualitative data from eight shrinking Finnish cities, we can reveal possible future development paths that may result from the forces. Overall, our results show that shrinking cities have various alternative future development trajectories leading to various outcomes. Some of the forces may intensify the current negative effects caused by urban shrinkage. By contrast, other forces can radically change future development.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46688,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Planning Studies\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Planning Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/13563475.2023.2259109\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Planning Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13563475.2023.2259109","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING","Score":null,"Total":0}
Reimagining alternative future development trajectories of shrinking Finnish cities
Shrinking cities are seen as places with poor development prospects, as places that should adjust to given future realities of shrinkage. However, because the future is open to many alternative possibilities, shrinking cities also have a variety of alternative futures to which earlier research has paid less attention. This study aims to identify and analyse the alternative future development trajectories of shrinking cities. In this study, the futures research method called futures wheel is utilized to analyse possible future consequences of 24 different forces of change that can steer the future development of shrinking cities. By combining the futures wheel method with qualitative data from eight shrinking Finnish cities, we can reveal possible future development paths that may result from the forces. Overall, our results show that shrinking cities have various alternative future development trajectories leading to various outcomes. Some of the forces may intensify the current negative effects caused by urban shrinkage. By contrast, other forces can radically change future development.
期刊介绍:
Planning, at urban, regional, national and international levels, faces new challenges, notably those related to the growth of globalisation as both an objective socio-economic process and a shift in policy-maker perceptions and modes of analysis. International Planning Studies (IPS) addresses these issues by publishing quality research in a variety of specific fields and from a range of theoretical and normative perspectives, which helps improve understanding of the actual and potential role of planning and planners in this context.