重新构想不断缩小的芬兰城市的未来发展轨迹

IF 1.7 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
Annamari Kiviaho, Saija Toivonen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

萎缩的城市被视为发展前景不佳的地方,应该根据未来收缩的现实进行调整。然而,由于未来有许多可供选择的可能性,缩小的城市也有各种可供选择的未来,而早期的研究对这些未来的关注较少。本研究旨在识别和分析萎缩城市的未来发展轨迹。在本研究中,使用期货研究方法“期货轮”来分析24种不同的变化力量可能导致的未来后果,这些变化力量可以引导萎缩城市的未来发展。通过将未来之轮方法与芬兰八个萎缩城市的定性数据相结合,我们可以揭示这些力量可能导致的未来发展路径。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,萎缩的城市有不同的未来发展轨迹,导致不同的结果。其中一些力量可能会加剧目前由城市萎缩造成的负面影响。相比之下,其他力量可以从根本上改变未来的发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Reimagining alternative future development trajectories of shrinking Finnish cities
Shrinking cities are seen as places with poor development prospects, as places that should adjust to given future realities of shrinkage. However, because the future is open to many alternative possibilities, shrinking cities also have a variety of alternative futures to which earlier research has paid less attention. This study aims to identify and analyse the alternative future development trajectories of shrinking cities. In this study, the futures research method called futures wheel is utilized to analyse possible future consequences of 24 different forces of change that can steer the future development of shrinking cities. By combining the futures wheel method with qualitative data from eight shrinking Finnish cities, we can reveal possible future development paths that may result from the forces. Overall, our results show that shrinking cities have various alternative future development trajectories leading to various outcomes. Some of the forces may intensify the current negative effects caused by urban shrinkage. By contrast, other forces can radically change future development.
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来源期刊
International Planning Studies
International Planning Studies REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
4.80%
发文量
20
期刊介绍: Planning, at urban, regional, national and international levels, faces new challenges, notably those related to the growth of globalisation as both an objective socio-economic process and a shift in policy-maker perceptions and modes of analysis. International Planning Studies (IPS) addresses these issues by publishing quality research in a variety of specific fields and from a range of theoretical and normative perspectives, which helps improve understanding of the actual and potential role of planning and planners in this context.
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