贸易政策和财政贬值

IF 6.3 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1257/mac.20210163

Christopher Erceg, Andrea Prestipino, Andrea Raffo

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引用次数: 0

摘要

财政贬值——增加进口关税和出口补贴(IX)或增加增值税和工资补贴(VP)——已被证明在固定汇率下提供与货币贬值同样多的刺激。我们发现，如果代理人期望政策被逆转并且税收传递很大，则VP是收缩的，而IX提供适度的提振。在我们的中等规模DSGE模型中，这两个特征对于解释德国在2007年应对副总统的表现不佳至关重要。这些发现对财政贬值作为货币政策受限时的周期性稳定工具提出了质疑。(凝胶e32, e52, e62, f13, f33, h20)

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Trade Policies and Fiscal Devaluations

Fiscal devaluations—an increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX) or an increase in value-added taxes and payroll subsidies (VP)—have been shown to provide as much stimulus under fixed exchange rates as a currency devaluation. We find that if agents expect policies to be reversed and the tax pass-through is large, VP is contractionary and IX provides a modest boost. In our medium-scale DSGE model, both features are crucial in accounting for Germany’s underperformance in response to VP in 2007. These findings cast doubt on fiscal devaluations as a cyclical stabilization tool when monetary policy is constrained. (JEL E32, E52, E62, F13, F33, H20)

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

1.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.