大象和女神:水系统模型如何帮助保护文明生活

IF 1.2 Q4 WATER RESOURCES
William James
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中,房间里的大象是在有限的世界中预测的长期人口增长和下降的问题,而希腊女神万灵药是无干扰地实现可持续生活的人口和解决世界上一些最紧迫问题的机会。本文特别讨论了水系统模型和建模的潜力,以促进向可持续质量的长期可持续生活的规划过渡。为了简单起见,我们既考虑了一个典型的家庭记忆时期,例如从1880年到2100年,或220年,大约七到八代人,也考虑了人类世的千年。在确定背景定义并介绍潜在问题之后,我们引用公认的专家,回顾了关键的人口和福祉趋势,态度和影响。人口和经济衰退将如何、在何处以及何时发生,没有涉及;这篇论文提出了水资源工程和水资源管理建模的启示,即使这种转变在空间和时间上是不完整的。面对迫在眉睫的退化,建议对目前的水模型实践进行重大修订:有计划、分阶段、有序地拆除预计的和现有的城市发展和排水基础设施,例如,在适用的情况下,系统地恢复关键生态和自然水文。显然,迫在眉睫的去增长时代是否会持续是不确定的。还提到了去增长对改善福祉的抵消保证,为个人提供了更多的时间来促进他们的个人利益。原始的ppt演示可以在Robillynians.org和CHI网站(James 2023)上找到。在报告中提出的问题和给出的答案都包含在本文的附录中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Elephant and the Goddess: How Water Systems Models Could Help Preserve Civil Life
In this paper, the elephant in the room is the issue of projected longer-term population growths and declines in a finite world, while the Greek goddess Panacea is the opportunity to non-disruptively attain populations that live sustainably and solve some of the world’s most pressing problems. Particularly addressed in this paper is the potential of water systems models and modeling to facilitate a transition to planning for long-term sustainable lives of sustained quality. Anent “longer term”, for simplicity we consider both a typical period of family memory, for instance from 1880 to 2100, or 220 years, about seven or eight generations, as well as the anthropocene millenia. After setting down background definitions and introducing the underlying issues, we review key population and well-being trends, attitudes, and impacts, citing acknowledged experts. How, where, and when population and economic decline will occur is not covered; the paper rather suggests implications for water resources engineering and for water management modeling, even if the transition will be patchy in space and time. Confronting imminent degrowth, significant revisions of current water modeling practice are suggested: planned, phased, orderly removal of projected and existing urban development and drainage infrastructure and, for instance and where applicable, systematic restoration of keystone ecology and natural hydrology. Whether the imminent degrowth era will persist is uncertain, evidently. Also alluded to is degrowth’s countervailing assurance of improved well-being, providing more time for individuals to further their personal interests. The original PowerPoint presentation is at Robillynians.org and also at the CHI website (James 2023). Questions raised and the answers given at the presentation are included in the appendix to this paper.
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CiteScore
1.30
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8
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