Changing climatic drivers of European spruce bark beetle outbreaks: a comparison of locations around the Northern Baltic Sea

European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus [L.]; SBB) damage has reached extreme and unprecedented levels in East Central Sweden, likely driven by increasing temperatures and severe drought due to climate change. However, SBB outbreaks have been less severe on the eastern side of the Baltic Sea, in Estonia and Finland, than in Sweden. This study investigated how precipitation, temperature sum, and droughts (hydrothermic index) have varied in land areas surrounding the Baltic Sea. We studied past meteorological observations from 1950 to 1999. We modeled the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature using three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and multiple (17–23) climate models. Future climate projections (up to 2100) were made for Southeastern Estonia, Southern Finland, and East Central Sweden. Weather data showed that temperature sums had been high and droughts severe in the 2010s, particularly in East Central Sweden, where SBB outbreaks have been a more significant problem than on the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea. Future climate projections suggest that increases in temperature sum will further enhance SBB reproduction, especially in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In all climate change scenarios, drought continues to be a problem in East Central Sweden, potentially facilitating SBB outbreaks. In addition, moderate and severe droughts may become more frequent in Southeastern Estonia and Southern Finland if climate change proceeds as predicted in the RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenarios.