评估气候变化下的飓风对财产的影响

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Climate Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.3390/cli11110217
Evelyn G. Shu, Mariah Pope, Bradley Wilson, Mark Bauer, Mike Amodeo, Neil Freeman, Jeremy R. Porter
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于气候变化,美国的房产面临越来越多的热带风暴级别的风。造成这种风险增加的原因是未来飓风形成时更有可能发生的严重飓风,以及大西洋形成的飓风向北移动,增加了建筑物和基础设施遭受破坏性风的估计风险。这里展示的风模型结合了开放数据和科学,利用高分辨率地形、计算机模拟的飓风路径和属性数据,为美国本土(CONUS)创建了从当前时间到2053年在RCP 4.5下的超局部热带气旋风暴露信息。这样就可以详细评估几个回归期的可能风速,达到或超过气旋阈值的可能性,以及在气候变化的情况下,将当前和未来30年的气旋级风暴露量进行比较。这项研究的结果显示,墨西哥湾和东南大西洋沿岸地区受到了广泛的影响,大西洋中部和美国东北部地区受到的影响显著增加。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing Property Exposure to Cyclonic Winds under Climate Change
Properties in the United States face increasing exposure to tropical storm-level winds due to climate change. Driving this increasing risk are severe hurricanes that are more likely to occur when hurricanes form in the future and the northward shift of Atlantic-formed hurricanes, increasing the estimated exposure of buildings and infrastructure to damaging winds. The wind model presented here combines open data and science by utilizing high-resolution topography, computer-modeled hurricane tracks, and property data to create hyper-local tropical cyclone wind exposure information for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from current time to 2053 under RCP 4.5. This allows for a detailed evaluation of probable wind speeds by several return periods, probabilities of cyclonic thresholds being reached or surpassed, and a comparison of this cyclone-level wind exposure between the current year and 30 years into the future under climatic changes. The results of this research reveal extensive exposure along the Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic Coasts, with significant growing exposure in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the country.
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来源期刊
Climate
Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
5.40%
发文量
172
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.
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