Induced Seismicity Hazard Assessment for a Potential CO2 Storage Site in the Southern San Joaquin Basin, CA

California’s Central Valley offers vast opportunities for CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. We conducted an induced seismicity hazard assessment for a potential injection site in the southern San Joaquin Basin for 18 years of injection at 0.68 MtCO2/yr and 100 years of monitoring. We mapped stress, faults, and seismicity in a 30 km radius around the site to build a geomechanical model and resolve the stresses on major faults. From a 3D hydromechanical simulation of the CO2 plume, we calculated the change in pressure over time on these faults and determined the conditions for safe injection. Lacking any subsurface imaging, we also conducted a probabilistic fault slip analysis using numerous random distributions of faults and a range of geomechanical parameters. Our results show that the change in probability of fault slip can be minimized by controlling the size, migration, and magnitude of the pressure plume. We also constructed a seismic catalog for the last 20 years around the site and characterized the natural patterns of seismicity. We use these results to establish criteria for evaluating potential-induced events during the storage period and to develop a traffic light response system. This study represents a first-order procedure to evaluate the seismic hazards presented by CO2 storage and incorporate uncertainties in hydrological and geomechanical parameters.