基于建筑能耗监测的建筑碳排放峰值预测——以宁波市为例

IF 0.7 4区艺术学 0 ARCHITECTURE

Journal of Green Building Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.3992/jgb.18.3.215

Xingfan Pu, Jian Yao, Haifeng Shang, Junwei Lou, Ala Deen Knefaty, Rongyue Zheng, Honglei Xie

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引用次数: 0

摘要

[摘要]实施建筑碳排放总量控制方案的前提是对未来建筑碳排放变化趋势进行预测。本文通过宁波市建筑能源监测平台对中国宁波市建筑碳排放峰值进行调查分析，并采用STIRPAT模型对宁波市中长期碳排放进行预测。基于蒙特卡罗方法，模拟了动态情景下城市层面建筑领域的碳峰值时间和碳峰值。结果表明，在基准情景下，宁波市建筑领域碳排放将在2037年左右达到峰值，峰值为2268万吨。通过完善建筑节能法律法规，推广绿色节能建筑，建立建筑节能体系，宁波市建筑部门将在2031年(±2年)达到其碳排放峰值时间，峰值约为1545(±107)万吨CO2。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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PEAKS PREDICTION OF BUILDING CARBON EMISSION BASED ON BUILDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION MONITORING: A CASE STUDY OF NINGBO CITY

ABSTRACT The premise of implementing the total amount control plan of building carbon emission should be based on the prediction of the future change trend of building carbon emission. This paper investigates and analyzes peaks of building carbon emission in Ningbo city of China through the Ningbo’s building energy monitoring platform and uses the STIRPAT model to predict the medium and long-term carbon emissions in Ningbo. The peak time and peak value of carbon in the construction field at the city level under the dynamic scenario are simulated based on the Monte Carlo method. The results show that under the benchmark scenario, the carbon emission in the construction field of Ningbo will peak around 2037, with a peak of 22.68 million tons. Through the improvement of building energy-saving laws and regulations, the popularization of green energy-saving buildings, and the establishment of a building energy-saving system, the Ningbo construction department will achieve its carbon emission peak time in 2031 (±2), with a peak of about 15.45 (±1.07) million tons of CO2.

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来源期刊

Journal of Green Building ARCHITECTURE-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

7.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of the Journal of Green Building is to present the very best peer-reviewed research in green building design, construction, engineering, technological innovation, facilities management, building information modeling, and community and urban planning. The Research section of the Journal of Green Building publishes peer-reviewed articles in the fields of engineering, architecture, construction, construction management, building science, facilities management, landscape architecture, interior design, urban and community planning, and all disciplines related to the built environment. In addition, the Journal of Green Building offers the following sections: Industry Corner that offers applied articles of successfully completed sustainable buildings and landscapes; New Directions in Teaching and Research that offers guidance from teachers and researchers on incorporating innovative sustainable learning into the curriculum or the likely directions of future research; and Campus Sustainability that offers articles from programs dedicated to greening the university campus.