用非线性ARDL模型研究印度电子支付对货币供给的不对称影响

IF 1.3 Q1 AREA STUDIES
Archna Chaudhry, None Chandni, Garima Dudeja
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引用次数: 0

摘要

使用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型分析印度的货币供应,以了解电子支付、汇率、利率和通货膨胀等几个因素如何影响货币供应。利用增广Dickey-Fuller单位根检验和Phillips-Perron单位根检验来证实变量是平稳的。在NARDL的边界检验和Johansen-Juselius协整检验中,本研究发现了研究中使用的变量之间协整的证据。采用NARDL检验模型考察了短期和长期动态对变量的不同影响。短期估计表明,货币供应量(M1)对涉及零售支付、汇率和利率的正面冲击最敏感,但涉及卡支付和预付支付工具的负面冲击最敏感。信用卡支付的减少,以及零售支付、预付支付工具、汇率和利率的正增长,都将在短期内对M3产生重大影响。此外,一项长期研究结果表明,所有变量都对混合形式的货币供应量(M1)有显著影响,而所有因素,除了涉及卡支付的因素外,对货币供应量(M3)有相当大的影响。沃尔德检验结果证实了不对称影响的存在,这可以为政策制定者提供重要的教训。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Investigating Asymmetric Effects of Electronic Payment on Money Supply for India using Non-linear ARDL Model
Money supply in India is analysed using a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to see how several factors, such as electronic payments, exchange rate, interest rates and inflation, affect the money supply. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test and the Phillips–Perron unit root test are utilized to confirm that the variables are stationary. In the bounds test of the NARDL as well as Johansen–Juselius cointegration test, this study finds evidence of cointegration amongst variable used in the study. NARDL testing model is employed to investigate the dissimilar influences on variables with short- and long-run dynamics. Short-term estimates suggest that the money supply ( M1) is most responsive to positive shocks involving retail payments, the exchange rate and interest rates, but negative shocks involving card payment and prepaid payment instruments. A reduction in card payment, as well as a positive increase in retail payment, the prepaid payment instrument, the exchange rate and the interest rate, would all have major effects on M3 in short run. In addition, a long-term finding demonstrates that all of the variables have a significant influence on the money supply ( M1) in its mixed form while all of the factors, with the exception of the one involving card payments, have a considerable impact on the money supply ( M3). Wald test results confirm the existence of asymmetric influences which can have significant lessons for policymakers.
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来源期刊
Millennial Asia
Millennial Asia AREA STUDIES-
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
12.50%
发文量
33
期刊介绍: Millennial Asia: An International Journal of Asian Studies is a multidisciplinary, refereed biannual journal of the Association of Asia Scholars (AAS)–an association of the alumni of the Asian Scholarship Foundation (ASF). It aims to encourage multifaceted, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research on Asia, in order to understand its fast changing context as a growth pole of global economy. By providing a forum for Asian scholars situated globally, it promotes dialogue between the global academic community, civil society and policy makers on Asian issues. The journal examines Asia on a regional and comparative basis, emphasizing patterns and tendencies that go beyond national borders and are globally relevant. Modern and contemporary Asia has witnessed dynamic transformations in cultures, societies, economies and political institutions, among others. It confronts issues of collective identity formation, ecological crisis, rapid economic change and resurgence of religion and communal identifies while embracing globalization. An analysis of past experiences can help produce a deeper understanding of contemporary change. In particular, the journal is interested in locating contemporary changes within a historical perspective, through the use of interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches. This way, it hopes to promote comparative studies involving Asia’s various regions. The journal brings out both thematic and general issues and the thrust areas are: Asian integration, Asian economies, sociology, culture, politics, governance, security, development issues, arts and literature and any other such issue as the editorial board may deem fit. The core fields include development encompassing agriculture, industry, regional trade, social sectors like health and education and development policy across the region and in specific countries in a comparative perspective.
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