Mark Stirling, Elena Manea, Matt Gerstenberger, Sanjay Bora
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We perform ground-motion-based testing of the NZ NSHM 2022 exceedance rates against the observed exceedance rates for strong-motion stations around New Zealand. To account for the modeled variability in rate, the comparisons are done by assuming a binomial distribution about the mean exceedance rate for 0.1g and 0.2g at each station location. We use a combined approach that considers the full epistemic uncertainty distribution for those exceedance rates by weighting the binomial for each branch in the logic tree. We find that, in general, the observed exceedance rates can be drawn from the NZ NSHM 2022 with probabilities greater than 0.05, and that the discrepancies are generally confined to areas close to major earthquake sequences (e.g., Christchurch). These sequences were not considered in the NZ NSHM 2022 forecast. This initial iteration of testing does not provide evidence to reject the NZ NSHM 2022 based on the New Zealand accelerograph record. Importantly, we can only draw limited conclusions from the testing due to the very short time frame of data available for testing.","PeriodicalId":9444,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America","volume":" 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Testing and Evaluation of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022\",\"authors\":\"Mark Stirling, Elena Manea, Matt Gerstenberger, Sanjay Bora\",\"doi\":\"10.1785/0120230108\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ABSTRACT We summarize the work that has been done within the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022) to evaluate and test the updated hazard model and its components against observational data. We undertake a two-phase analysis to learn about the performance of the hazard model with respect to several limited databases. Phase 1 is the evaluation phase, involving multiple efforts to optimize various source rate model and ground-motion characterization model components against: (1) the New Zealand earthquake catalog for 1950–2020; (2) international catalogs (where relevant); and (3) New Zealand paleoseismic and geodetic data. Phase 2 involves testing the hazard results. We perform ground-motion-based testing of the NZ NSHM 2022 exceedance rates against the observed exceedance rates for strong-motion stations around New Zealand. To account for the modeled variability in rate, the comparisons are done by assuming a binomial distribution about the mean exceedance rate for 0.1g and 0.2g at each station location. We use a combined approach that considers the full epistemic uncertainty distribution for those exceedance rates by weighting the binomial for each branch in the logic tree. We find that, in general, the observed exceedance rates can be drawn from the NZ NSHM 2022 with probabilities greater than 0.05, and that the discrepancies are generally confined to areas close to major earthquake sequences (e.g., Christchurch). These sequences were not considered in the NZ NSHM 2022 forecast. This initial iteration of testing does not provide evidence to reject the NZ NSHM 2022 based on the New Zealand accelerograph record. 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Testing and Evaluation of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022
ABSTRACT We summarize the work that has been done within the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022) to evaluate and test the updated hazard model and its components against observational data. We undertake a two-phase analysis to learn about the performance of the hazard model with respect to several limited databases. Phase 1 is the evaluation phase, involving multiple efforts to optimize various source rate model and ground-motion characterization model components against: (1) the New Zealand earthquake catalog for 1950–2020; (2) international catalogs (where relevant); and (3) New Zealand paleoseismic and geodetic data. Phase 2 involves testing the hazard results. We perform ground-motion-based testing of the NZ NSHM 2022 exceedance rates against the observed exceedance rates for strong-motion stations around New Zealand. To account for the modeled variability in rate, the comparisons are done by assuming a binomial distribution about the mean exceedance rate for 0.1g and 0.2g at each station location. We use a combined approach that considers the full epistemic uncertainty distribution for those exceedance rates by weighting the binomial for each branch in the logic tree. We find that, in general, the observed exceedance rates can be drawn from the NZ NSHM 2022 with probabilities greater than 0.05, and that the discrepancies are generally confined to areas close to major earthquake sequences (e.g., Christchurch). These sequences were not considered in the NZ NSHM 2022 forecast. This initial iteration of testing does not provide evidence to reject the NZ NSHM 2022 based on the New Zealand accelerograph record. Importantly, we can only draw limited conclusions from the testing due to the very short time frame of data available for testing.
期刊介绍:
The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, commonly referred to as BSSA, (ISSN 0037-1106) is the premier journal of advanced research in earthquake seismology and related disciplines. It first appeared in 1911 and became a bimonthly in 1963. Each issue is composed of scientific papers on the various aspects of seismology, including investigation of specific earthquakes, theoretical and observational studies of seismic waves, inverse methods for determining the structure of the Earth or the dynamics of the earthquake source, seismometry, earthquake hazard and risk estimation, seismotectonics, and earthquake engineering. Special issues focus on important earthquakes or rapidly changing topics in seismology. BSSA is published by the Seismological Society of America.