气候变化与粮食价格波动:1971-2019年玉米和小麦的经验证据

Marie Steen, Olvar Bergland, Ole Gjølberg
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人们普遍认为气候变化使天气更加不稳定。由于温度和降水的结合是粮食作物生产力的主要驱动因素,更频繁的极端降雨和热浪、洪水和干旱往往会使粮食生产更加波动,从而使粮食价格更加波动。我们使用EGARCH模型分析了1971-2019年期间玉米和小麦生长季节的每日价格。在此期间,价格波动偶尔会出现峰值。然而,我们没有发现,自20世纪70年代以来,粮食价格变得更加不稳定,除了小麦价格波动有一个小但统计上显著的上升趋势。从气候变化导致更频繁的极端天气影响作物产量的程度来看,价格影响似乎已经减弱,这很可能是通过农民适应气候变化、引进更耐压的杂交品种、储存、区域和国际贸易以及风险管理工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate Change and Grain Price Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Corn and Wheat 1971–2019
It is widely recognized that climate change makes the weather more erratic. As the combination of temperature and precipitation is a major driver of grain crop productivity, more frequent extreme rainfalls and heat waves, flooding and drought tend to make grain production and hence grain prices more volatile. We analyze daily prices during the growing season for corn and wheat over the period 1971–2019 using an EGARCH model. There have been occasional spikes in price volatility throughout this period. We do not, however, find that grain prices have become more volatile since the 1970s, with an exception for a small but statistically significant upward trend in wheat price volatility. To the extent that climate change has caused more frequent weather extremes affecting crop yields, it appears that the price effects have been softened, most likely through farmers’ adaption to climate changes, introduction of more stress-tolerant hybrids, storage, regional and international trade and risk management instruments.
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