Automotive manufacturing enterprise financial risk evolution monitoring and early warning simulation: based on the perspective of value chain analysis

Abstract The automotive industry value chain, which includes the “upstream suppliers—the middle-stream manufacturing enterprises-downstream customers”, constitutes the closest environment for the automotive manufacturing enterprises. From the perspective of value chain, combined with the idea of system dynamics, we analyze the formation mechanism of financial risk in automotive manufacturing enterprises, construct a financial risk evolution monitoring model based on value stream and construct a financial dynamic early warning simulation model by using free cash flow. The vehicle manufacturing listed companies in 2011–2015 are selected as samples. The empirical research results show that the financial risk situation can be changed by adjusting the value chain structure, that is, the causal feedback of the system, and the result of financial warning may change. The contribution of this paper is to analyze the enterprise financial risk based on the value chain and provide new ideas for the financial early warning of the enterprise from the perspective of value creation.