过度

William Rees
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人类的事业已经失控;我们超出了地球的长期承载能力,并且正在破坏我们自身存在的生物物理基础。尽管有几十年的累积证据,但国际社会在解决这一问题的努力中令人沮丧地失败了。我认为文化进化和全球变化已经超过了生物进化;尽管有几千年的进化史,人类的大脑和相关的认知过程在处理人类生态危机方面已经过时了。智人倾向于用简单化、还原主义和机械的方式来回应问题。简单的诊断导致简单的治疗。政治上可接受的全球变暖技术“解决方案”假设化石燃料是问题所在,需要大量资本投资,并在潜在利润、数千个高薪工作和气候变化可以轻易纠正的平淡保证的基础上得到推广。如果成功,这只会延长超调。复杂性需要系统化的方法;要解决人口超调问题,就需要开展前所未有的国际合作,制定协调一致的政策,以确保实现社会公正的经济收缩(主要发生在高收入国家),并在世界各地大幅减少人口。最终目标应该是接近20亿的人口在自然的生物物理手段下在“稳定状态”中更加公平地繁荣。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Overshoot
The human enterprise is in overshoot; we exceed the long-term carrying capacity of Earth and are degrading the biophysical basis of our own existence. Despite decades of cumulative evidence, the world community has failed dismally in efforts to address this problem. I argue that cultural evolution and global change have outpaced bio-evolution; despite millennia of evolutionary history, the human brain and associated cognitive processes are functionally obsolete to deal with the human eco-crisis. H. sapiens tends to respond to problems in simplistic, reductionist, mechanical ways. Simplistic diagnoses lead to simplistic remedies. Politically acceptable technical ‘solutions’ to global warming assume fossil fuels are the problem, require major capital investment and are promoted on the basis of profit potential, thousands of well-paying jobs and bland assurances that climate change can readily be rectified. If successful, this would merely extend overshoot. Complexity demands a systemic approach; to address overshoot requires unprecedented international cooperation in the design of coordinated policies to ensure a socially-just economic contraction, mostly in high-income countries, and significant population reductions everywhere. The ultimate goal should be a human population in the vicinity of two billion thriving more equitably in ‘steady-state’ within the biophysical means of nature.
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