基于仿真模型的复杂技术系统运行过程中服役人员个体伤害风险评估

E. A. Andreev, R. M. Vivchar, D. V. Reshetnikov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在确保复杂技术系统设备运行安全的典型系统中,最重要的因素是评估服务人员的个人死亡(伤害)和/或危害健康的风险。因此,在制定形成安全方案措施清单和参数的定性决策过程中,有必要对个别风险指标进行评估,由于设备运行过程中存在各种不确定因素,导致个别风险的出现,使评估变得复杂。本文提出了一个仿真模型,该模型可以评估服役人员在设备操作过程中的个人死亡(伤害)风险指标,从而形成安全方案。该仿真模型与现有模型的不同之处在于,由于对危险生产设施运行的子过程模型进行了汇总,因此可以在负面事件的实施情景、安全方案措施的参数以及所有重大不良因素的复杂影响之间建立关系。通过开发的模拟模型,可以提高风险指标评估的充分性:服役人员死亡(受伤)和/或健康受到损害的个人风险。该方法的有效性将通过维修人员在操作供电系统时受到电气伤害的例子来证明。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessment of the Individual Risk of Injury to Service Personnel During the Operation of Complex Technical Systems Using a Simulation Model
In a typical system for ensuring the safety of operation of equipment of complex technical systems, the most important element is the assessment of the individual risk of death (injury) and/or harm to the health of service personnel.. T erefore, in the process of developing a qualitative decision on the formation of a list and parameters of safety program measures, it is necessary to assess individual risk indicators, which is complicated by the presence of various uncertainties that cause the appearance of individual risk during the operation of equipment. T e article presents a simulation model that allows assessing the indicators of individual risk of death (injury) of service personnel during the operation of equipment in order to form a safety program. T is simulation model dif ers from the existing ones in that, as a result of aggregation of models of subprocesses of the operation of a hazardous production facility, it is possible to establish a relationship between the scenarios of the implementation of negative events, the parameters of the safety program measures and the complex ef ects of all signif cant undesirable factors. T e developed simulation model makes it possible to increase the adequacy of the assessment of the risk indicator: the individual risk of death (injury) and/or harm to the health of service personnel. T e ef iiency of the methodology will be demonstrated by the example of receiving an electrical injury by maintenance personnel during operation of the power supply system.
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