埃塞俄比亚中阿瓦什亚盆地Kessem流域气候变化对河流响应的模拟

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES
Mamush Tekle Assfaw, Bogale Gebremariam Neka, Elias Gebeyehu Ayele
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究了未来气候变化对Kessem流域径流响应的影响。从GCMs中提取了2040年代(2031-2060)和2070年代(2061-2090)的SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5排放情景的气候变量。利用校正后的SWAT模型将校正后的降水和温度转换为流量。2040年代和2070年代的未来流量模拟输出与基期(1992-2020年)进行了比较,并以百分比变化表示。在标定和验证过程中,SWAT模型的Nash-Sutcliffe效率(NSE)分别为0.79和0.77,决定系数(R2)分别为0.8和0.79,显示了其模拟水流的能力。在这两种排放情景下,预计年平均最高和最低气温都将增加,而中期和长期的最低气温都将显著增加。随着我们接近本世纪末,我们看到在SSP5-8.5排放情景下的年平均降雨量和流量增加。在SSP5-8.5排放情景下,预计2040年代和2070年代的年平均降雨量(流量)分别增加3%(12.5%)和23%(48.8%)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow responses in the Kessem watershed, Middle Awash sub-basin, Ethiopia
Abstract In this study, we examined how future climate change will affect streamflow responses in the Kessem watershed. Climate variables from SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios were extracted from GCMs for the 2040s (2031–2060) and 2070s (2061–2090). The bias-corrected precipitation and temperature were converted into streamflow using a calibrated SWAT model. The simulated output of the future streamflow for the periods 2040s and 2070s was compared with the base period (1992–2020) and presented as percentage changes. During calibration and validation, the SWAT model showed Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.79 and 0.77, as well as coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.8 and 0.79, demonstrating its capability of simulating streamflow. The annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures are predicted to increase, with a pronounced increase in the minimum temperature for the mid-term and long-term futures under both emission scenarios. As we approach the end of the century, we see an increase in annual mean rainfall and streamflow under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. The increment in annual mean rainfall (streamflow) is expected to be 3% (12.5%) and 23% (48.8%) for the 2040s and 2070s, respectively, under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
10.70%
发文量
168
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.
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