Non-domestic building stock: linking dynamics and spatial distributions

In contrast to domestic buildings, the drivers influencing the stock dynamics (construction subtracted by demolition) of non-domestic buildings (NDB) have not yet been researched on a use-class basis. For the first time, due to elaborated data sets on construction and demolition of NDB in Germany, an in-depth analysis of causal relationships is provided at a subnational level. This paper investigates the cause–effect relationships between influencing variables and stock dynamics of the three quantitatively most relevant use classes of the German NDB stock: office buildings, industrial buildings and warehouses. Influencing variables on the development of the stock were first identified by means of expert interviews. Regions with high construction dynamics were identified. Within these highly dynamic regions, construction activity was correlated with influencing variables. A principal component analysis was used to examine the explanatory power of underlying, use-class-specific components of the variable set. The results show the particular importance of employment-related variables. They combine demographic, economic and wealth-related influences and allow for a distinction to be made in relation to functional non-domestic-use classes. For the first time, this confirms that different use classes of NDB are characterised by different influencing variables, and that these variables recur to uncorrelated overarching drivers. Practice relevance This study identifies the drivers of NDB stock dynamics. These drivers can be used to estimate future changes of the NDB stock on different scales. The linkages to specific use-class drivers allow new understandings of stock dynamics for office, industrial and warehouse buildings at a regional level. This has potential application to circular economy approaches as the results of this research can be applied at city levels. This study can provide a clearer understanding of future construction material volumes and their respective recycling capacities. The same is applicable for research on stock-driven land demand. This study can contribute to the broader discussion on the future development of the non-residential building stock and the resulting environmental impacts due to land use, energy and material consumption or CO2 emissions.