俄罗斯联邦新冠肺炎流行过程修正sir模型参数的异质性

Q4 Medicine
Anna Yu. Popova, Nina V. Zaitseva, Vadim B. Alekseev, Aleksandr N. Letyushev, Dmitry A. Kiryanov, Svetlana V. Kleyn, Marat R. Kamaltdinov, Maxim V. Glukhikh
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 Materials and methods. SIR (+L) model as a modification of the classic SIR model, reflecting the trend in the transition of the susceptible to the action of the virus (S – susceptible) population to the group of infected (I – infected), recovered (R – recovered) and the dead (L – letal) was used as a basic model of the epidemic process.
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引用次数: 0

摘要

介绍。考虑到俄罗斯联邦各地区的具体情况,这项工作致力于参数化COVID-19流行过程。& # x0D;研究目的是基于疫情过程波的形式化和参数化,考虑区域特点,分析COVID-19传播异质性指标的时空分布。 材料和方法。SIR (+L)模型作为对经典SIR模型的修正,反映了受病毒作用的易感人群(S -易感)向感染(I -感染)、恢复(R -恢复)和死亡(L -致命)群体过渡的趋势。 结果。根据对COVID-19发病率时间序列的分析,以一周为平均周期,在俄罗斯联邦各地区分配了流行病进程启动的时间范围,对应于某些病毒株的统治浪潮。从2020年9月6日到2023年2月25日,每个地区共划分了四波疫情。对俄罗斯联邦各地区每一波的SIR (+L)模型参数进行分析,可以确定若干特征趋势,并获得对流行病进程各个阶段的可解释的影响方向,随后制定关于在区域和全国范围内维护人口健康及其安全水平的系统战略决策。 的局限性。提出的SIR模型(SIR (+L)模型)的修正是对真实流行病过程的显著简化,并且不允许描述许多观察到的效应。结论。根据疫情过程参数化结果,确定了疫情传播、恢复强度和死亡率的主要特征和模式。进一步的研究方向可能是使流行病过程模型复杂化,为其增加新的参数,同时考虑到人口按性别和年龄组划分,按疾病严重程度划分,按地域和社会原则分组,以及确定潜在发病率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Heterogeneity of the modified SIR-model parameters of waves of COVID-19 epidemic process in the Russian Federation
Introduction. The work is dedicated to the parameterization of the COVID-19 epidemic process, taking into account the specifics of the Russian Federation regions. Purpose of study is the analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of heterogeneous indicators of the spread of COVID-19 based on the formalization and parametrization of waves of the epidemic process, bearing in mind regional specifics. Materials and methods. SIR (+L) model as a modification of the classic SIR model, reflecting the trend in the transition of the susceptible to the action of the virus (S – susceptible) population to the group of infected (I – infected), recovered (R – recovered) and the dead (L – letal) was used as a basic model of the epidemic process. Results. Time ranges of activation of the epidemic process in the regions of the Russian Federation, corresponding to waves of domination of certain strains of the virus, have been allocated on the basis of the analysis of time series COVID-19 morbidity with a week period of averaging. In total, starting from September 6, 2020 and ending on February 25, 2023, four epidemic waves have been allocated for each region. Analysis of SIR (+L) model parameters for each wave by regions of the Russian Federation made it possible to establish a number of characteristic trends and obtain interpretable directions of influence on the epidemic process individual stages, with the subsequent development of systemic strategic decisions on the preservation of population health and its level of safety at the regional and country-wide scale. Limitations. The presented modification of the SIR model (SIR (+L) model) is a significant simplification of the real epidemic process and does not allow describing a number of observed effects. Conclusion. Based on the results of the parametrization of the epidemic process, the main features and patterns of the spread of the COVID-19, the intensity of recovery and mortality were established. A further direction of research may be the complication of the epidemic process model, the addition of new parameters to it, taking into account the division of the population into gender and age groups, diseases by severity, grouping according to the territorial and social principle, and the identification of the latent morbidity.
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来源期刊
Gigiena i sanitariia
Gigiena i sanitariia Environmental Science-Pollution
CiteScore
0.80
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192
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