基于面板数据和综合控制方法的自由贸易区经济效应

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Qianwei Tan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为分析保税区的建立对经济增长的影响,本研究以福建省保税区为政策干预单位,采用面板数据与安慰剂检验相结合的方法,通过综合控制方法对保税区的经济效果进行定量评价。通过中介效应机制分析了自由贸易区建立的经济增长效应机制。结果表明,该方法的估计结果更好,鲁棒性更强。控制变量的真值与复合值的差异较小,开放度的真值和复合值分别为15.9226和15.4561,差值为0.4665。2015年福建省与合成福建省的GDP差距达到0.1,此后差距明显增大。在加入控制变量后,这一差异的历年趋势与加入控制变量前的趋势一致,即福建省设立自贸区对经济增长具有显著的促进作用。其他省市获得与福建省相同的政策效果的概率为1/26。与其他综合结果相比,福建省的最大均方根误差率为6.0,比江苏省高2.8,表明处理效果最大。其中,山东省和重庆市的均方根误差率分别为2.2和2.3,福建省的均方根误差率为6.0。该研究方法可以有效地分析福建省自贸区的经济效应,加深对自贸区经济效应的全面认识。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economic Effects of Free Trade Zones based on Panel Data and Synthetic Control Methods
To analyze the impact of the establishment of FTZs on economic growth, the study quantitatively evaluates the economic effects of FTZs through the synthetic control method, taking Fujian FTZs as the unit of policy intervention, and combining the panel data with the placebo test method. The mechanism of economic growth effect of the establishment of FTZ is analyzed through the mechanism of mediating effect. The results show that the estimation results of the research method are better and more robust. The difference between the true and composite values of the control variable is relatively small, with the true and composite values of openness being 15.9226 and 15.4561, respectively, with a difference of 0.4665. In 2015, the difference in GDP between Fujian Province and synthetic Fujian Province reached 0.1, and the difference has significantly increased thereafter. After adding control variables, the trend of this difference over the years is consistent with that before adding control variables, i.e., the establishment of FTZ in Fujian Province can significantly promote economic growth. There is a 1/26 probability that other provinces and cities can obtain the same policy effect as Fujian Province. Compared to other synthesized results, the maximum root mean square error ratio in Fujian Province is 6.0, which is 2.8 higher than that in Jiangsu Province, indicating the maximum processing effect. Among them, the root-mean-square error ratios of Shandong Province and Chongqing Municipality are 2.2 and 2.3, respectively, while the root-mean-square error ratio of Fujian Province is 6.0. The research method can effectively analyze the economic effects of FTZ in Fujian Province and deepen the comprehensive understanding of the economic effects of FTZ.
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来源期刊
WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics
WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
180
期刊介绍: WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics publishes original research papers relating to the global economy. We aim to bring important work using any economic approach to a wide international audience and therefore only publish papers of exceptional scientific value that advance our understanding of finances. The research presented must transcend the limits of case studies, while both experimental and theoretical studies are accepted. While its main emphasis is economic, it is a multi-disciplinary journal and therefore its content mirrors the diverse interests and approaches of scholars involved with the international dimensions of business, economics, finance, history, law, marketing, management, political science, and related areas. It also welcomes scholarly contributions from officials with government agencies, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations.
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