A tool for risk assessment after a catastrophic event during suborbital flight operations

Abstract. Suborbital flights represent a new frontier for the aerospace industry. Together with technological challenges and legal aspects, suitable tools for risk analysis are required to evaluate the potential damage produced by a catastrophic event during a suborbital flight. In particular, an explosion during the powered acceleration phase can cause dispersion of a large number of debris over a wide area, potentially harming the population living close to the launch site. A tool for the determination of the impact footprint of debris after an explosion is proposed, with the objective of supporting the definition of suitable ascent trajectories which reduce the risk for third parties below a publicly acceptable threshold. Legal aspects are also discussed.