基于随机森林算法的阶段-流量关系模型研究

IF 1.1 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Yuechuan Gao, Zhu Jiang, Yuchen Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

水文模拟与预报是水文变化研究的一个重要方面。准确预测水位、流量等水文因子对水资源规划、水库调度运行、航运管理和防洪等具有重要意义。汛期河流流量预测是水资源规划与管理中的重要问题。为了提高级流量关系模型的标定精度和稳定性,探讨了综合算法在级流量关系研究中的可行性。采用集成算法的框架,提出了一种基于神经网络的随机森林算法。首先,采用Levenberg-Marquardt (LM)算法对BP神经网络的权值更新过程进行优化,提高模型的收敛速度;其次,将LM-BP算法作为决策树构建随机森林算法。利用大渡河红旗站汛期水文资料对模型进行了验证。基于性能指标的平均绝对误差、均方误差和平均绝对百分比误差,对经典模型、BP神经网络模型、LM-BP神经网络模型和优化算法模型的结果进行了评价。评价结果表明,优化后的算法模型(Mae = 3.13 m3/s MSE = 19.28 m3/s MAPE = 1.8%)优于其他算法模型,综合算法模型在汛期流量预测中具有较高的准确性和较好的稳定性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on stage-discharge relationship model based on random forest algorithm
Hydrological simulation and prediction is a vital aspect of the hydrological change research. Accurate prediction of hydrological factors such as stage and discharge is essential for water resources planning, reservoir dispatching and operation, shipping management and flood control. River discharge forecasting during flood season is an important issue in water resources planning and management. To improve the calibration accuracy and stability of the stage-discharge relationship model, the feasibility of integrated algorithm in the study of stage-discharge relationship is explored. A random forest algorithm based on neural network is proposed by using the framework of integrated algorithm. First, Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm is used to optimize the weight updating process of Back propagation (BP) neural network and improve the convergence speed of the model. Second, the LM-BP algorithm is used as a decision tree to build a random forest algorithm. The model is tested with the hydrological data of Hongqi Station in Dadu River in flood season. Based on the mean absolute error, mean square error and mean absolute percentage error of the performance indicators, the results for the classical model, BP neural network model, LM-BP neural network model and optimized algorithm model are evaluated. The evaluation results show that the optimized algorithm model (Mae = 3.13 m3/s MSE = 19.28 m3/s MAPE = 1.8%) is superior to other algorithm models, and the integrated algorithm model has high accuracy and good stability in flood season flow forecasting.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
28
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Water Management publishes papers on all aspects of water treatment, water supply, river, wetland and catchment management, inland waterways and urban regeneration. Topics covered: applied fluid dynamics and water (including supply, treatment and sewerage) and river engineering; together with the increasingly important fields of wetland and catchment management, groundwater and contaminated land, waterfront development and urban regeneration. The scope also covers hydroinformatics tools, risk and uncertainty methods, as well as environmental, social and economic issues relating to sustainable development.
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