欧洲沿海洪水的长期经济影响:一个概率分析

IF 1.6 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Ignazio Mongelli, Michalis Vousdoukas, Luc Feyen, Antonio Soria, Juan-Carlos Ciscar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

& lt; abstract>在这篇文章中,我们量化了欧洲沿海洪水的长期经济影响。特别是,直接的沿海损害如何造成长期的经济损失,并在整个世纪蔓延和复合。一组与洪水相关的直接损失(对住宅建筑、企业实物资产和农业生产)的概率预测被用作动态随机经济模型的外生冲击。本文明确考虑了与经济主体行为和其他相关宏观经济假设相关的不确定性,即,消费者将如何为他们的房屋维修提供资金,企业重建需要多长时间,企业是否决定在洪水过后更好地重建,并可能通过生产率增长来补偿损失。我们的研究结果表明,沿海洪水的长期影响可能大于直接损害。在高排放情景(RCP8.5)下,到2100年,欧盟27国加上英国每年可能损失0.25%到0.91%的产出,是直接损失的两倍。福利损失呈现出强烈的区域差异,南部地区(保加利亚、希腊、意大利、马耳他、葡萄牙和西班牙)、联合王国和爱尔兰地区的损失最为严重,到本世纪末,很大一部分人口可能遭受重大福利损失。& lt; / abstract>
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Long-term economic impacts of coastal floods in Europe: a probabilistic analysis

In this article we quantify the long-term economic impacts of coastal flooding in Europe. In particular, how the direct coastal damages generate long-term economic losses that propagate and compound throughout the century. A set of probabilistic projections of inundation-related direct damages (to residential buildings, firms' physical assets and agriculture production) is used as an exogenous shock to a dynamic stochastic economic model. The article considers explicitly the uncertainty related to the economic agents' behaviour and other relevant macroeconomic assumptions, i.e., how would consumers finance the repairing of their homes, how long does it take for a firm to reconstruct, whether firms decide to build-back-better after the inundation and possibly compensate the losses with a productivity gain. Our findings indicate that the long-term impacts of coastal floods could be larger than the direct damages. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) the EU27 plus UK could lose every year between 0.25% and 0.91% of output by 2100, twice as much as the direct damages. The welfare losses present a strong regional variation, with the South (Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Spain), and United Kingdom (UK) plus Ireland regions showing the highest damages and a significant part of the population that could suffer significant welfare losses by the end of the century.

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来源期刊
AIMS Environmental Science
AIMS Environmental Science ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
31
审稿时长
5 weeks
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