拉丁美洲国家货币低估对经济增长动态影响的面板变量分析

Carlos Chavez
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摘要

摘要本研究分析了1980 - 2018年货币低估对拉美国家人均经济增长的动态影响。为了估计这些影响,使用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,系统GMM作为其估计器。低估变量是由实际汇率的不同衡量标准产生的。此外,还使用了各种人均GDP指标来计算人均经济增长。为了控制不同的低估传播渠道对人均经济增长的影响,我们纳入了宏观经济和人力资本变量。结果显示,根据用于计算低估的实际汇率的定义,存在积极影响。结果还包括格兰杰因果检验,稳定性检验和脉冲响应图,预测人均经济增长对低估冲击的反应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A PANEL VAR ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC IMPACT OF UNDERVALUATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES
ABSTRACT This study analyzes the dynamic effects of undervaluation on the economic growth per capita of Latin American countries from 1980 to 2018. To estimate these effects, a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model was used with the System GMM as its estimator. The undervaluation variable is created from different measures of real exchange rates. In addition, various measures of GDP per capita were used to calculate economic growth per capita. Macroeconomic and human capital variables were included to control for the different undervaluation spread channels on economic growth per capita. Results show a positive effect depending on the definition of the real exchange rate used to calculate the undervaluation. Results also include the Granger causality test, a stability test, and impulse response graphs that project the response of per capita economic growth to an undervaluation shock.
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