经济周期方法的系统文献综述:测量、性质、持续时间

IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Zhongmin Pu, Xuecheng Fan, Zeshui Xu, Marinko Skare
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究背景:商业周期方法在经济分析和预测中得到了广泛的应用。特别是近40年来,各种现代BC模型被提出并得到迅速发展。然而,最近没有研究对这一主题的出版物进行系统回顾。文章目的:本文旨在从BC的产生原因、性质和测量BC的方法三个方面对BC方法的出版物进行全面的综述,以确定BC方法的研究现状、研究差距和未来趋势。方法:通过对BC的成因和性质进行定性介绍,对BC的测量方法进行定量分析,对BC方法进行系统的文献综述。我们从WoS Core Collection和Google Scholar数据库中选择了206篇与BC方法相关的文章,时间跨度从1946年到2022年,进行了全面的统计和内容分析。统计分析了论文发表年份、热门期刊和高被引出版物的分布情况。内容分析根据测量bc的方法将入选的出版物分为6类,并对每一类的理论、技术和应用进行了详细分析。的发现,附加值:分析结果表明,BC方法已逐渐发展成熟,并已广泛应用于分解经济时间序列的趋势,量化商业周期的性质,并阐明其背后的原因和传导机制。本文综述了有效运用BC方法进行实证研究的现状、研究挑战和未来发展方向。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A systematic literature review on business cycle approaches: Measurement, nature, duration
Research background: The business cycle (BC) approaches have found extensive use in economic analysis and forecasting. Especially in the last 40 years, various modern BC models have been proposed and have experienced rapid development. However, there are no recent studies that provide a systematic review of the publications on this topic. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to comprehensively review publications of BC approaches based on the cause, nature and methods of measurement BC, with the goal of identifying the current research states, research gaps and future trends of BC approaches. Methods: A systematic literature review of BC approaches is conducted by qualitatively introducing the cause and the nature of BCs and quantitatively analyzing the methods of measurement BCs. We selected 206 articles related to BC approaches from the WoS Core Collection and Google Scholar database, spanning the years 1946 to 2022, for comprehensive statistical and content analysis. The statistical analysis presents the distribution of publication years, the most popular journals and the highly cited publications. The content analysis classifies the selected publications into 6 categories based on methods of measurement BCs, and the theory, technique and applications of each category are analyzed in detail. Findings & value added: The analysis results indicate that BC approaches have progressively evolved in sophistication and have found widespread application in decomposing trends within economic time series, quantifying the nature of business cycles, and elucidating the causes and transmission mechanisms underlying them. This review paper provides current states, research challenges and future directions in effectively employing BC approaches for empirical study.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
13.70
自引率
5.90%
发文量
26
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊介绍: The Oeconomia Copernicana is an academic quarterly journal aimed at academicians, economic policymakers, and students studying finance, accounting, management, and economics. It publishes academic articles on contemporary issues in economics, finance, banking, accounting, and management from various research perspectives. The journal's mission is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research that contributes to the development of these disciplines and has practical relevance. The journal encourages the use of various research methods, including falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of theories, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication, and a combination of qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, and meta-analytic approaches. While the journal prioritizes comprehensive manuscripts that include methodological-based theoretical and empirical research with implications for policymaking, it also welcomes submissions focused solely on theory or methodology.
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