TYPICAL ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF LOW-CARBON TRANSFORMATION OF AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO ASSESS THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SUCH STRATEGIES

In connection with the adoption of the Strategy for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation with low greenhouse gas emissions until 2050, the agricultural sector requires a low-carbon transformation of production systems, which is a transitional dynamic process during which targeted changes occur in the structure of land use on agricultural lands, production structure and technological basis. The article proposes a standard economic and mathematical model of low-carbon transformation of regional agri-food systems as the basis for a methodology for designing efficient and sustainable systems. The study includes definitions of the basic concepts involved in model designs, the functional structure of a typical model and its mathematical description. The presented standard model has a block structure and consists of two interacting modules: a dynamic model of low-carbon transformation and a static model for optimizing the sectoral structure of crop production. The standard model allows solving various options for setting tasks for decarbonization of the functioning processes of the agri-food system: assessing the potential for maximum decarbonization; finding the maximum decarbonization subject to ensuring a minimum gross income; maximizing gross income while limiting greenhouse gas emissions at a given level; maximizing current gross revenue payback values for greenhouse gas emissions; finding the parameters of a strategy that realizes the possibility of an expert choice of a combination of different values of gross income and carbon emissions on a Pareto-optimal set when the condition of self-sufficiency of the region’s population with food is met. The article presents and analyzes interesting results from testing a standard model of low-carbon transformation using data from the Kostroma region, and also presents possible prospects for using such a model. The results of the conducted studies showed that model assessments of the various features of agri-food systems adapting to climate dynamics are an effective tool for strategic planning in this area, both for commodity producers and for agricultural management bodies.