Applying Data Envelopment Analysis and Grey Model for the Productivity Evaluation of Vietnamese Tourism

Travel and tourism are performing significant important roles in Vietnam, this industry has gradually been a critical sector of the economy. As a result, understanding the ability to perform of firms in this industry helps to ensure the sustainable growth of Vietnamese travel and tourism industry. In this study, the researcher suggests a combined method including a grey model (GM) and a Malmquist productivity index (MPI) to evaluate the abilities to perform of travel and tourism Vietnamese for some past periods. After gathering the data for 14 Vietnamese travel and tourism firms over the four-year period of 2015-2018, the research applies GM to estimate values of selected input and output factors for the 14 Vietnamese travel and tourism firms in two next years 2019 and 2020. Then, one MPI model is employed to evaluate the performance of those firms in past years and next two years from forecasted values by GM. The MPI indexes reveal several firms will get higher efficiency, while others will get lower efficiency in the future. This integrated numerical research provides past-present-future insights for decision-makers to maintain sustainable development of travel and tourism industry in Vietnam by performance analysis.