Timing of spring migration of Norwegian Great Cormorants: long-term trends and effects of winter severity

Migratory birds are showing species-specific responses to climate change through changes in phenology, distribution and abundance. While many bird observatories collect standardised data on migratory passerines to provide invaluable information on changes in their abundances and migratory phenology, some bird observatories also undertake visual observations of passing migratory waterbirds and seabirds. In this study, we use two such long-term datasets of Great Cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo) compiled during their spring migration. We explore the extent to which winter severity has affected their migration phenology and whether there have been long-term trends in migration timing. Observations were conducted at Lista Bird Observatory in southwest Norway (1992–2020) and at Skagen in north Jutland, Denmark (1974–98). At Skagen, there were no detectable long-term trends in Great Cormorant migratory timing. However, the median date (marking the passage of 50% of birds) was significantly advanced following warm winters. Changes in the date of passage of the first 10% of birds was close to doing so as well, but the late phase (the passage of 90% of birds) showed no relation to temperature. At Lista, winter temperatures in the southern part of the wintering area had no significant effect on the overall timing of the spring passage, but the first 10% of the Cormorants migrated significantly earlier in years with mild late March temperatures at Lista. The early phase of passage at Lista showed a significant long-term trend towards an advancement of migration, leading to an extended migration period. The findings of this study indicate that the timing of Great Cormorant spring migration does in some cases respond to late winter temperatures or show long-term trends, but that the responses and trends differ between sites and between the beginning, middle and late phases of the migration, with the early and middle phases generally showing stronger responses and trends than the late phase.