印尼的传统信仰与选举行为

Q2 Social Sciences
Ahmad Harakan, Riccardo Pelizzo, Nygmetzhan Kuzenbayev
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引用次数: 2

摘要

虽然关于这个问题的一些研究表明,传统信仰影响人们的政治行为和偏好,但很少有人关注传统信仰如何影响选举行为。唯一一项试图将传统信仰和选举行为联系起来的研究是通过分析多哥的情况来做到这一点的,多哥的政党制度传统上相当稳定和完整。另一方面,印尼的情况自《秩序巴鲁》(order Baru)结束以来发生了重大变化,曾经相当不分散的政党体系现在显示出高度分散。因此,探索传统信仰的存在/传播如何在一个不断变化、日益分散和民主化的政治制度中塑造选民的选择是特别有趣的。此外,在回顾有关印尼选举的文献时,我们发现,首先,对印尼选举行为的研究很少采用现有的理论框架;第二,定量研究很少;第三,几乎没有对选举行为进行微观层面的定量研究。在本文中,我们通过对原始调查数据进行统计分析,评估选民的选举选择是否以及在多大程度上受到他们是否以及在多大程度上坚持传统信仰的影响。我们发现,具有传统思维的选民比不持有传统信仰的选民更有可能投票给执政联盟中的世俗政党。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
TRADITIONAL BELIEFS AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR IN INDONESIA
While several studies on the issue have shown that traditional beliefs affect people's political behavior and preferences, very little attention has been paid to how traditional beliefs influence electoral behavior. The only study that has attempted to link traditional beliefs and electoral behavior has done so by analyzing the case of Togo where the party system has been traditionally fairly stable and unfragmented. The case of Indonesia, on the other hand, has undergone significant changes since the end of the Orde Baru, and what was once a fairly unfragmented party system now displays high levels of fragmentation. Hence, it is particularly interesting to explore how the presence/diffusion of traditional beliefs shapes the voters’ choices in a changing, increasingly fragmented, democratizing political system. Moreover, in reviewing the literature on Indonesian elections, we find that, first, the study of electoral behavior in Indonesia has made little effort to employ existing theoretical frameworks; second, quantitative studies are scarce; and third, there are practically no micro-level quantitative studies on electoral behavior. In this article, we assess whether and to what extent the electoral choice of a voter is affected by whether and to what extent they hold on to traditional beliefs by performing statistical analyses of original survey data. We find that voters with a traditional mindset are more likely to vote for the secular parties in the ruling coalition than voters who do not hold traditional beliefs.
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来源期刊
World Affairs
World Affairs Social Sciences-Social Sciences (all)
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: World Affairs is a quarterly international affairs journal published by Heldref Publications. World Affairs, which, in one form or another, has been published since 1837, was re-launched in January 2008 as an entirely new publication. World Affairs is a small journal that argues the big ideas behind U.S. foreign policy. The journal celebrates and encourages heterodoxy and open debate. Recognizing that miscalculation and hubris are not beyond our capacity, we wish more than anything else to debate and clarify what America faces on the world stage and how it ought to respond. We hope you will join us in an occasionally unruly, seldom dull, and always edifying conversation. If ideas truly do have consequences, readers of World Affairs will be well prepared.
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