{"title":"“战略性”在美国国家安全政策中的意义","authors":"Jeffrey A. Larsen, James J. Wirtz","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2261249","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"AbstractHow is the term ‘strategic’ used today within the US Department of Defense? To address this question, the article explores the evolution of the term ‘strategic’ from the interwar period to the end of the Cold War era, when Strategic Air Command was responsible for anything deemed strategic. The contemporary use of the term is a manifestation of a growing need to integrate the activities of various commands, capabilities and operations across the Defense Department that can produce significant military or political effects. Several problems could emerge due to a lack of clarity, integration and synchronisation across the US defence establishment. The Pentagon should and could establish greater clarity in defining strategic threats, operations, systems, command relationships and deterrence.Key words: Able ArcherCold Warcyber operationsintegrated deterrencenuclear deterrencespacestrategic deterrencestrategic effectsUS Strategic Command Notes1 Colin S. Gray, The Future of Strategy (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2015), p. 26, emphasis in original.2 See White House, ‘National Security Strategy’, October 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/8-November-Combined-PDF-for-Upload.pdf; and US Department of Defense, ‘2022 National Defense Strategy’, 27 October 2022, https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF.3 See Gray, The Future of Strategy, p. 22.4 See Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 4th ed. (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019), pp. 1–15; and Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 3–9.5 See Giulio Douhet, Command of the Air (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 2019).6 See Michael E. Brown, Flying Blind: The Politics of the US Strategic Bomber Program (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992), pp. 35–62; and John T. Correll, ‘Daylight Precision Bombing’, Air & Space Forces Magazine, 1 October 2008, https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/1008daylight/.7 See George Quester, Deterrence Before Hiroshima: The Influence of Airpower on Modern Strategy (New York: John Wiley, 1966), p. 52.8 See Brown, Flying Blind, pp. 61–5.9 This paradox is known to undergraduates from the ‘Sagan–Waltz Debate’. See Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, 3rd ed. (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 2012).10 See Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989).11 Jonathan Schell, The Fate of the Earth (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1982).12 See Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1966), pp. 1–34.13 See Gregory S. Gilmour, ‘From SAC to STRATCOM: The Origins of Unified Command Over Nuclear Forces’, MA Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 1993, pp. 60–2, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA268609.pdf.14 Some theatre commanders also retained the authority for tactical nuclear-weapons planning in their areas of responsibility.15 See US Strategic Command, ‘History’, https://www.stratcom.mil/About/History/.16 See James J. Wirtz, ‘The Cyber Pearl Harbor Redux: Helpful Analogy or Cyber Hype?’, Intelligence and National Security, vol. 33, no. 5, April 2018, pp. 771–3.17 See US Cyber Command, ‘Our History’, https://www.cybercom.mil/About/History.18 See Harald Müller and Annette Schaper, ‘US Nuclear Policy After the Cold War’, PRIF Reports No. 69, Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, 2004, https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_downloads/prif69.pdf.19 Author interviews with senior officials from Australia and the United Kingdom, October 2022.20 Author interviews with senior officials, Washington DC, December 2022.21 Ibid.22 Ibid.23 See David Hackett Fischer, Paul Revere’s Ride (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 402.24 Barry Posen, Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991).25 See Bruce G. Blair, The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War (Washington DC: Brookings Institution, 1993).26 See Gordon Barrass, ‘Able Archer 83: What Were the Soviets Thinking?’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 6, December 2016–January 2017, pp. 7–30; and Nate Jones (ed.), Able Archer 83: The Secret History of the NATO Exercise that Almost Triggered Nuclear War (New York: New Press, 2016).27 For more on Unified Command Plans, see Andrew Feickert, ‘The Unified Command Plan and Combatant Commands: Background and Issues for Congress’, CRS Report R42077, Congressional Research Service, 3 January 2013, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R42077.pdf.28 White House, ‘Unified Command Plan’, 13 January 2021, p. 3, para 10a.29 Author interviews with officials in Washington DC, and Omaha, NE, autumn 2022.30 Quoted in Justin Katz, ‘Berger: Time to Look at Changing Combatant Command Structure’, Breaking Defense, 24 May 2023, https://breakingdefense.com/2023/05/berger-time-to-look-at-changing-combatant-command-structure/.31 According to a recent study, ‘current military doctrine does not clearly assign responsibility for planning nuclear operations for regional contingencies, which is necessary for effective conventional-nuclear integration at the operational level. JP [Joint Publication] 3-72 states that the “geographic combatant commander (GCC), supported by USSTRATCOM” is prepared “to perform nuclear targeting to generate desired effects and achieve objectives,” while JP 3-35 states that “specialized planning is typically conducted by USSTRATCOM in coordination with the supported GCC.”’ Adam Mount and Pranay Vaddi, ‘An Integrated Approach to Deterrence Posture: Reviewing Conventional and Nuclear Forces in a National Defense Strategy’, Federation of American Scientists, 2020, https://docslib.org/doc/8927812/an-integrated-approach-to-deterrence-posture-reviewing-conventional-and-nuclear-forces-in-a-national-defense-strategy.32 See Hans M. Kristensen, ‘The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Regional Counterproliferation and Global Strike Scenarios’, Presentation to the New Mexico Nuclear Study Group Workshop ‘What Role, If Any, For Nuclear Weapons?’, Center for Science, Technology, and Policy, University of New Mexico, 11–12 September 2008, https://programs.fas.org/ssp/nukes/publications1/UNMbrief2008.pdf.33 One exception to this general observation may be European Command’s nuclear-contingency planners supporting NATO’s nuclear-planning office at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe.34 White House, ‘National Security Strategy’, p. 22.35 Author interviews in Washington DC, December 2022.36 See Feickert, ‘The Unified Command Plan and Combatant Commands’.37 Author interview, February 2023.38 The regrettable lack of attention paid to nuclear matters (and to Russian studies) by the generation following the end of the Cold War has been quite noticeable to the small cohort that remained in these fields. See Bryan Bender, ‘The Dangerous and Frightening Disappearance of the Nuclear Expert’, Politico, 28 July 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/28/nuclear-experts-russia-war-00108438.Additional informationNotes on contributorsJeffrey A. LarsenJeffrey A. Larsen is a research professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School and president of Larsen Consulting Group.James J. WirtzJames J. Wirtz is a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors alone and do not reflect the positions of any government, government agency or commercial firm. The authors thank US Strategic Command for supporting this research.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Meaning of ‘Strategic’ in US National-security Policy\",\"authors\":\"Jeffrey A. Larsen, James J. Wirtz\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/00396338.2023.2261249\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"AbstractHow is the term ‘strategic’ used today within the US Department of Defense? To address this question, the article explores the evolution of the term ‘strategic’ from the interwar period to the end of the Cold War era, when Strategic Air Command was responsible for anything deemed strategic. The contemporary use of the term is a manifestation of a growing need to integrate the activities of various commands, capabilities and operations across the Defense Department that can produce significant military or political effects. Several problems could emerge due to a lack of clarity, integration and synchronisation across the US defence establishment. The Pentagon should and could establish greater clarity in defining strategic threats, operations, systems, command relationships and deterrence.Key words: Able ArcherCold Warcyber operationsintegrated deterrencenuclear deterrencespacestrategic deterrencestrategic effectsUS Strategic Command Notes1 Colin S. Gray, The Future of Strategy (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2015), p. 26, emphasis in original.2 See White House, ‘National Security Strategy’, October 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/8-November-Combined-PDF-for-Upload.pdf; and US Department of Defense, ‘2022 National Defense Strategy’, 27 October 2022, https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF.3 See Gray, The Future of Strategy, p. 22.4 See Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 4th ed. (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019), pp. 1–15; and Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 3–9.5 See Giulio Douhet, Command of the Air (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 2019).6 See Michael E. Brown, Flying Blind: The Politics of the US Strategic Bomber Program (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992), pp. 35–62; and John T. Correll, ‘Daylight Precision Bombing’, Air & Space Forces Magazine, 1 October 2008, https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/1008daylight/.7 See George Quester, Deterrence Before Hiroshima: The Influence of Airpower on Modern Strategy (New York: John Wiley, 1966), p. 52.8 See Brown, Flying Blind, pp. 61–5.9 This paradox is known to undergraduates from the ‘Sagan–Waltz Debate’. See Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, 3rd ed. (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 2012).10 See Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989).11 Jonathan Schell, The Fate of the Earth (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1982).12 See Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1966), pp. 1–34.13 See Gregory S. Gilmour, ‘From SAC to STRATCOM: The Origins of Unified Command Over Nuclear Forces’, MA Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 1993, pp. 60–2, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA268609.pdf.14 Some theatre commanders also retained the authority for tactical nuclear-weapons planning in their areas of responsibility.15 See US Strategic Command, ‘History’, https://www.stratcom.mil/About/History/.16 See James J. Wirtz, ‘The Cyber Pearl Harbor Redux: Helpful Analogy or Cyber Hype?’, Intelligence and National Security, vol. 33, no. 5, April 2018, pp. 771–3.17 See US Cyber Command, ‘Our History’, https://www.cybercom.mil/About/History.18 See Harald Müller and Annette Schaper, ‘US Nuclear Policy After the Cold War’, PRIF Reports No. 69, Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, 2004, https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_downloads/prif69.pdf.19 Author interviews with senior officials from Australia and the United Kingdom, October 2022.20 Author interviews with senior officials, Washington DC, December 2022.21 Ibid.22 Ibid.23 See David Hackett Fischer, Paul Revere’s Ride (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 402.24 Barry Posen, Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991).25 See Bruce G. Blair, The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War (Washington DC: Brookings Institution, 1993).26 See Gordon Barrass, ‘Able Archer 83: What Were the Soviets Thinking?’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 6, December 2016–January 2017, pp. 7–30; and Nate Jones (ed.), Able Archer 83: The Secret History of the NATO Exercise that Almost Triggered Nuclear War (New York: New Press, 2016).27 For more on Unified Command Plans, see Andrew Feickert, ‘The Unified Command Plan and Combatant Commands: Background and Issues for Congress’, CRS Report R42077, Congressional Research Service, 3 January 2013, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R42077.pdf.28 White House, ‘Unified Command Plan’, 13 January 2021, p. 3, para 10a.29 Author interviews with officials in Washington DC, and Omaha, NE, autumn 2022.30 Quoted in Justin Katz, ‘Berger: Time to Look at Changing Combatant Command Structure’, Breaking Defense, 24 May 2023, https://breakingdefense.com/2023/05/berger-time-to-look-at-changing-combatant-command-structure/.31 According to a recent study, ‘current military doctrine does not clearly assign responsibility for planning nuclear operations for regional contingencies, which is necessary for effective conventional-nuclear integration at the operational level. JP [Joint Publication] 3-72 states that the “geographic combatant commander (GCC), supported by USSTRATCOM” is prepared “to perform nuclear targeting to generate desired effects and achieve objectives,” while JP 3-35 states that “specialized planning is typically conducted by USSTRATCOM in coordination with the supported GCC.”’ Adam Mount and Pranay Vaddi, ‘An Integrated Approach to Deterrence Posture: Reviewing Conventional and Nuclear Forces in a National Defense Strategy’, Federation of American Scientists, 2020, https://docslib.org/doc/8927812/an-integrated-approach-to-deterrence-posture-reviewing-conventional-and-nuclear-forces-in-a-national-defense-strategy.32 See Hans M. Kristensen, ‘The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Regional Counterproliferation and Global Strike Scenarios’, Presentation to the New Mexico Nuclear Study Group Workshop ‘What Role, If Any, For Nuclear Weapons?’, Center for Science, Technology, and Policy, University of New Mexico, 11–12 September 2008, https://programs.fas.org/ssp/nukes/publications1/UNMbrief2008.pdf.33 One exception to this general observation may be European Command’s nuclear-contingency planners supporting NATO’s nuclear-planning office at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe.34 White House, ‘National Security Strategy’, p. 22.35 Author interviews in Washington DC, December 2022.36 See Feickert, ‘The Unified Command Plan and Combatant Commands’.37 Author interview, February 2023.38 The regrettable lack of attention paid to nuclear matters (and to Russian studies) by the generation following the end of the Cold War has been quite noticeable to the small cohort that remained in these fields. See Bryan Bender, ‘The Dangerous and Frightening Disappearance of the Nuclear Expert’, Politico, 28 July 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/28/nuclear-experts-russia-war-00108438.Additional informationNotes on contributorsJeffrey A. LarsenJeffrey A. Larsen is a research professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School and president of Larsen Consulting Group.James J. WirtzJames J. Wirtz is a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors alone and do not reflect the positions of any government, government agency or commercial firm. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
摘要:“战略”一词今天在美国国防部内是如何使用的?为了解决这个问题,本文探讨了“战略”一词从两次世界大战之间到冷战末期的演变,当时战略空军司令部负责任何被视为战略的事情。这一术语的当代使用表明,越来越需要整合国防部各种指挥、能力和行动的活动,这些活动可以产生重大的军事或政治影响。由于美国国防体系缺乏明确性、一体化和同步性,可能会出现几个问题。五角大楼应该而且能够更加明确地定义战略威胁、作战、系统、指挥关系和威慑。关键词:Able archers冷战网络作战综合威慑核威慑空间战略威慑战略效果战略司令部注1科林·s·格雷:《战略的未来》(剑桥:政治出版社,2015),第26页,重点为原文参见白宫,《国家安全战略》,2022年10月,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/8-November-Combined-PDF-for-Upload.pdf;和美国国防部,“2022年国防战略”,2022年10月27日,https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF.3见格雷,战略的未来,第22.4页见劳伦斯·弗里德曼,核战略的演变,第4版(纽约:帕尔格雷夫·麦克米伦,2019),第1-15页;劳伦斯·弗里德曼,《战略:历史》(牛津:牛津大学出版社,2013年),第3-9.5页。参见朱利奥·杜赫,《空军司令部》(麦克斯韦空军基地,AL:航空大学出版社,2019年)参见迈克尔·e·布朗,《盲目飞行:美国战略轰炸机计划的政治》(伊萨卡,纽约:康奈尔大学出版社,1992),第35-62页;和John T. Correll,“日光精确轰炸”,航空与太空部队杂志,2008年10月1日,https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/1008daylight/.7见George Quester,广岛之前的威慑:空中力量对现代战略的影响(纽约:John Wiley, 1966),第52.8页见Brown, Flying Blind,第61-5.9页这个悖论是本科生从“萨根-华尔兹辩论”中知道的。参见斯科特·d·萨根和肯尼斯·n·瓦尔兹:《核武器的扩散:一场持久的辩论》,第3版(纽约:w.w.诺顿出版社,2012)见罗伯特·杰维斯,《核革命的意义:治国之道与世界末日的前景》(伊萨卡,纽约:康奈尔大学出版社,1989)乔纳森·谢尔,《地球的命运》(纽约:阿尔弗雷德·a·克诺夫出版社,1982)参见Thomas C. Schelling,《武器与影响》(纽黑文,康涅狄格州:耶鲁大学出版社,1966),第1-34.13页。参见Gregory S. Gilmour,《从战略司令部到战略司令部:核力量统一指挥的起源》,硕士论文,海军研究生院,1993年6月,第60-2页,https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA268609.pdf.14一些战区指挥官也保留了在其职责范围内进行战术核武器规划的权力参见美国战略司令部,“历史”,https://www.stratcom.mil/About/History/.16参见詹姆斯·j·维尔茨,“网络珍珠港:有用的类比还是网络炒作?”《情报与国家安全》,第33卷,第33期。见Harald m<e:1>勒和Annette Schaper,“冷战后的美国核政策”,PRIF报告第69期,法兰克福和平研究所,2004年,https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_downloads/prif69.pdf.19作者采访澳大利亚和英国高级官员,2022.10参见David Hackett Fischer, Paul Revere的Ride(牛津:牛津大学出版社,1995),p. 402.24 Barry Posen,无意的升级:常规战争和核风险(伊萨卡,纽约州:康奈尔大学出版社,1991)见布鲁斯·g·布莱尔,《意外核战争的逻辑》(华盛顿特区:布鲁金斯学会,1993年)参见戈登·巴拉斯,《能手83:苏联人在想什么?》,《生存》,第58卷,第1期。6、2016年12月- 2017年1月,第7-30页;和Nate Jones(编),《能手83:差点引发核战争的北约演习的秘史》(纽约:新出版社,2016).27有关统一指挥计划的更多信息,请参见Andrew Feickert,“统一指挥计划和战斗指挥:国会的背景和问题”,CRS报告R42077,国会研究处,2013年1月3日,https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R42077.pdf.28白宫,“统一指挥计划”,2021年1月13日,第3页,第10a.29段引用自Justin Katz,“Berger:改变战斗指挥结构的时间”,Breaking Defense, 2023年5月24日,https://breakingdefense。
The Meaning of ‘Strategic’ in US National-security Policy
AbstractHow is the term ‘strategic’ used today within the US Department of Defense? To address this question, the article explores the evolution of the term ‘strategic’ from the interwar period to the end of the Cold War era, when Strategic Air Command was responsible for anything deemed strategic. The contemporary use of the term is a manifestation of a growing need to integrate the activities of various commands, capabilities and operations across the Defense Department that can produce significant military or political effects. Several problems could emerge due to a lack of clarity, integration and synchronisation across the US defence establishment. The Pentagon should and could establish greater clarity in defining strategic threats, operations, systems, command relationships and deterrence.Key words: Able ArcherCold Warcyber operationsintegrated deterrencenuclear deterrencespacestrategic deterrencestrategic effectsUS Strategic Command Notes1 Colin S. Gray, The Future of Strategy (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2015), p. 26, emphasis in original.2 See White House, ‘National Security Strategy’, October 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/8-November-Combined-PDF-for-Upload.pdf; and US Department of Defense, ‘2022 National Defense Strategy’, 27 October 2022, https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF.3 See Gray, The Future of Strategy, p. 22.4 See Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 4th ed. (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019), pp. 1–15; and Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 3–9.5 See Giulio Douhet, Command of the Air (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 2019).6 See Michael E. Brown, Flying Blind: The Politics of the US Strategic Bomber Program (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992), pp. 35–62; and John T. Correll, ‘Daylight Precision Bombing’, Air & Space Forces Magazine, 1 October 2008, https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/1008daylight/.7 See George Quester, Deterrence Before Hiroshima: The Influence of Airpower on Modern Strategy (New York: John Wiley, 1966), p. 52.8 See Brown, Flying Blind, pp. 61–5.9 This paradox is known to undergraduates from the ‘Sagan–Waltz Debate’. See Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate, 3rd ed. (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 2012).10 See Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989).11 Jonathan Schell, The Fate of the Earth (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1982).12 See Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1966), pp. 1–34.13 See Gregory S. Gilmour, ‘From SAC to STRATCOM: The Origins of Unified Command Over Nuclear Forces’, MA Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 1993, pp. 60–2, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA268609.pdf.14 Some theatre commanders also retained the authority for tactical nuclear-weapons planning in their areas of responsibility.15 See US Strategic Command, ‘History’, https://www.stratcom.mil/About/History/.16 See James J. Wirtz, ‘The Cyber Pearl Harbor Redux: Helpful Analogy or Cyber Hype?’, Intelligence and National Security, vol. 33, no. 5, April 2018, pp. 771–3.17 See US Cyber Command, ‘Our History’, https://www.cybercom.mil/About/History.18 See Harald Müller and Annette Schaper, ‘US Nuclear Policy After the Cold War’, PRIF Reports No. 69, Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, 2004, https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_downloads/prif69.pdf.19 Author interviews with senior officials from Australia and the United Kingdom, October 2022.20 Author interviews with senior officials, Washington DC, December 2022.21 Ibid.22 Ibid.23 See David Hackett Fischer, Paul Revere’s Ride (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 402.24 Barry Posen, Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991).25 See Bruce G. Blair, The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War (Washington DC: Brookings Institution, 1993).26 See Gordon Barrass, ‘Able Archer 83: What Were the Soviets Thinking?’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 6, December 2016–January 2017, pp. 7–30; and Nate Jones (ed.), Able Archer 83: The Secret History of the NATO Exercise that Almost Triggered Nuclear War (New York: New Press, 2016).27 For more on Unified Command Plans, see Andrew Feickert, ‘The Unified Command Plan and Combatant Commands: Background and Issues for Congress’, CRS Report R42077, Congressional Research Service, 3 January 2013, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R42077.pdf.28 White House, ‘Unified Command Plan’, 13 January 2021, p. 3, para 10a.29 Author interviews with officials in Washington DC, and Omaha, NE, autumn 2022.30 Quoted in Justin Katz, ‘Berger: Time to Look at Changing Combatant Command Structure’, Breaking Defense, 24 May 2023, https://breakingdefense.com/2023/05/berger-time-to-look-at-changing-combatant-command-structure/.31 According to a recent study, ‘current military doctrine does not clearly assign responsibility for planning nuclear operations for regional contingencies, which is necessary for effective conventional-nuclear integration at the operational level. JP [Joint Publication] 3-72 states that the “geographic combatant commander (GCC), supported by USSTRATCOM” is prepared “to perform nuclear targeting to generate desired effects and achieve objectives,” while JP 3-35 states that “specialized planning is typically conducted by USSTRATCOM in coordination with the supported GCC.”’ Adam Mount and Pranay Vaddi, ‘An Integrated Approach to Deterrence Posture: Reviewing Conventional and Nuclear Forces in a National Defense Strategy’, Federation of American Scientists, 2020, https://docslib.org/doc/8927812/an-integrated-approach-to-deterrence-posture-reviewing-conventional-and-nuclear-forces-in-a-national-defense-strategy.32 See Hans M. Kristensen, ‘The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Regional Counterproliferation and Global Strike Scenarios’, Presentation to the New Mexico Nuclear Study Group Workshop ‘What Role, If Any, For Nuclear Weapons?’, Center for Science, Technology, and Policy, University of New Mexico, 11–12 September 2008, https://programs.fas.org/ssp/nukes/publications1/UNMbrief2008.pdf.33 One exception to this general observation may be European Command’s nuclear-contingency planners supporting NATO’s nuclear-planning office at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe.34 White House, ‘National Security Strategy’, p. 22.35 Author interviews in Washington DC, December 2022.36 See Feickert, ‘The Unified Command Plan and Combatant Commands’.37 Author interview, February 2023.38 The regrettable lack of attention paid to nuclear matters (and to Russian studies) by the generation following the end of the Cold War has been quite noticeable to the small cohort that remained in these fields. See Bryan Bender, ‘The Dangerous and Frightening Disappearance of the Nuclear Expert’, Politico, 28 July 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/28/nuclear-experts-russia-war-00108438.Additional informationNotes on contributorsJeffrey A. LarsenJeffrey A. Larsen is a research professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School and president of Larsen Consulting Group.James J. WirtzJames J. Wirtz is a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors alone and do not reflect the positions of any government, government agency or commercial firm. The authors thank US Strategic Command for supporting this research.
期刊介绍:
Survival, the Institute"s bi-monthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. With a diverse range of authors, thoughtful reviews and review essays, Survival is scholarly in depth while vivid, well-written and policy-relevant in approach. Shaped by its editors to be both timely and forward-thinking, the journal encourages writers to challenge conventional wisdom and bring fresh, often controversial, perspectives to bear on the strategic issues of the moment. Survival is essential reading for practitioners, analysts, teachers and followers of international affairs. Each issue also contains Book Reviews of the most important recent publications on international politics and security.