Ionospheric TEC prediction using FFNN during five different X Class solar flares of 2021 and 2022 and comparison with COKSM and IRI PLAS 2017

Abstract The Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) measured in the ray path of the signals directly contributes to the Range Error (RE) of the satellite signals, which affects positioning and navigation. Employing the Co-Kriging-based Surrogate Model (COKSM) to predict TEC and RE correction has proven prolific. This research attempted to test and compare the prediction capability of COKSM with an Artificial Intelligence-based Feed Forward Neural Network model (FFNN) during five X-Class Solar Flares of 2021–22. Also, the results are validated by comparing them with the IRI PLAS 2017 model. TEC, solar, and geomagnetic parameters data for Hyderabad GPS station located at 17.31° N latitude and 78.55° E longitude were collected from IONOLAB & OMNIWEB servers. The COKSM uses six days of input data to predict the 7th day TEC, whereas prediction using the FFNN model is done using 45 days of data before the prediction date. The performance evaluation is done using RMSE, NRMSE, Correlation Coefficient, and sMAPE. The average RMSE for COKSM varied from 1.9 to 9.05, for FFNN it varied from 2.72 to 7.69, and for IRI PLAS 2017 it varied from 7.39 to 11.24. Likewise, evaluation done for three different models over five different X-class solar flare events showed that the COKSM performed well during the high-intensity solar flare conditions. On the other hand, the FFNN model performed well during high-resolution input data conditions. Also, it is notable that both models performed better than the IRI PLAS 2017 model and are suitable for navigational applications.