Prediction of surface deformation induced by mining thin coal seam: A case study of Guanshan coalfield in Sichuan

The problem of surface deformation caused by coal mining is acute and usually lasts for a long time. During coal mining, the movement of the overlying strata has a broad range of influences, which may cause surface deformation, surface cracking, and damage to structures (buildings). However, continuous deformation monitoring data are often scarce in practice, making it challenging to predict the surface deformation caused by coal mining. In this context, this paper takes Sichuan’s Guanshan coalfield as the research object and proposes a comprehensive method integrating interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technology, the FLAC3D finite difference software, and the probability integral method to predict the surface deformation caused by mining a thin seam of coal. The results show that the trend of surface deformation estimated by the numerical simulation agrees well with the results of InSAR data and the probability integral model when using InSAR historical deformation data to invert the parameters of rock mechanics in the numerical simulation, which is beneficial to improving the reliability of the simulation results. The calculations of the probability integral method are close to the predictions of the FLAC3D numerical simulation, and a settlement deformation of 0.68 ​m is expected to occur in the Guanshan coalfield area. The comprehensive prediction method proposed in this paper effectively enhances the accuracy of surface deformation prediction under the action of mining and can provide a reference for predicting the surface subsidence of similar coal mines.