用天气模拟方法定量预报哥达瓦里盆地降水

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

MAUSAM Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.54302/mausam.v74i4.5267

DR. A. SRAVANI, DR. K. NAGA RATNA, R. SUDHEER KUMAR, N. REKHA

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究中，我们使用天气模拟方法构建了2012-2019年戈达瓦里河流域各子集水区的降雨发生频率。利用面平均降水的频率，对该模式对2020年天气情况的AAP进行了验证。该模型对2020年季风季节的预测准确率为62%，对50-100年和100年AAP事件的预测准确率为90%。利用AAP事件的频率，我们构造了发生在子盆地上空的天气事件的AAP的概率百分比。该模式在24小时前的QPF生成大致准确，提供了该地区的天气条件，这将非常有助于为洪水预报员和最终用户(如中央水务委员会和灾害管理部门)提供48小时的预报。

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Quantitative precipitation forecast for the Godavari basin using the Synoptic analogue method

In the present study, we have constructed a frequency of occurrence of rainfall over each sub-catchment of the Godavari river catchment using the synoptic analogue method for the years 2012-2019. Using the Frequency of the Areal average precipitations the model is verified for the AAP of the synoptic situations for the years 2020. The model has observed the 62% percentage of correct for the monsoon season 2020 and it gives the 90% correct to 50-100 and >100 AAP events. Using the frequency of the AAP events w have constructed the percentage of probability of the AAP of the synoptic events which occur over the Sub-basin. This model is generally accurate for the generation of QPF before the 24hr provided the synoptic conditions over the Region which will be very helpful to facilitate the 48hrs forecast to the flood forecasters and end-users like the central Water commission and Disaster management authorities.

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来源期刊

MAUSAM 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

1298

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： MAUSAM (Formerly Indian Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics), established in January 1950, is the quarterly research journal brought out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). MAUSAM is a medium for publication of original scientific research work. MAUSAM is a premier scientific research journal published in this part of the world in the fields of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics. The four issues appear in January, April, July & October.