喀拉拉邦不同地区相对湿度和风速的随机模拟与预报

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
MAUSAM Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.54302/mausam.v74i4.5603
GOKUL KRISHNAN B., VISHAL MEHTA, V. N. RAI
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候条件的变化取决于全年的季节变化。气候条件的建模和预测有助于确定特定时期内气候季节性变化的影响。气候变化可以直接或间接地影响我们社会的农业、工业、地理和技术部门。农业和相关部门受到气候变化的严重影响,因为它导致栽培作物完全被摧毁。本文采用SARIMA(季节性自回归综合移动平均)模型对喀拉拉邦北部、中部和南部地区的相对湿度和风速进行了随机建模和预测。喀拉拉邦北部地区和中部地区的月度天气数据来自RARS Pilicode和RARS Pattambi的位置,为期39年(1982-2020),而南部地区的数据来自RARS Vellayani的位置,为期36年(1985-2020),数据访问查看器的帮助。采用均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和相对平均绝对百分比误差(RMAPE)对模型进行验证。喀拉拉邦不同地区相对湿度和风速的rape值小于10%,表明拟合模型的性能准确。选取的最佳SARIMA模型用于获得未来5年的相对湿度和风速的预测值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Stochastic modelling and forecasting of relative humidity and wind speed for different zones of Kerala
The variations in climatic conditions depend on seasonal changes throughout the year. Modelling and prediction of climatic conditions can help to determine the impacts of seasonal changes in climate over a specific period of time. Climate change can directly and indirectly affect agricultural, industrial, geographical and technological sectors in our society. Agriculture and the allied sector are seriously affected by changes in climate since it leads to complete destruction of cultivated crops. In this study, in order to model and forecast relative humidity and wind speed for northern, central and southern zones of Kerala, stochastic approach using SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was employed. The monthly weather data for the northern zone and the central zone of Kerala was taken from the location of RARS Pilicode and RARS Pattambi for a period of 39 years (1982-2020) whereas for southern zone, data was collected from the location of RARS, Vellayani for a period of 36 years (1985-2020) with the help of data access viewer. The model validation was done using MSE (mean square error), RMSE (root mean square error), MAE (mean absolute error) and RMAPE (relative mean absolute percentage error). The RMAPE values of relative humidity and wind speed in different zones of Kerala was less than 10 per cent which indicated that fitted model is showing accurate performance. The best selected SARIMA model is used in attaining anticipated values of relative humidity and wind speed for the next 5 years.
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来源期刊
MAUSAM
MAUSAM 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
1.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
1298
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: MAUSAM (Formerly Indian Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics), established in January 1950, is the quarterly research journal brought out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). MAUSAM is a medium for publication of original scientific research work. MAUSAM is a premier scientific research journal published in this part of the world in the fields of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics. The four issues appear in January, April, July & October.
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