分析师的每股收益预测:预测不确定性和预测精度对投资者判断的影响

IF 2.5 4区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Clarence Goh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用对照实验研究预测不确定性和预测精度对投资者判断的共同影响。研究发现,预测精度调节了预测不确定性对投资者预测可靠性判断的影响,当分析师的每股收益(EPS)预测是四舍五入时,预测不确定性对投资者预测可靠性判断的影响比预测精度时更负向。此外,预测精度与投资者对预测可靠性判断之间的关系是通过投资者对预测属性的感知来中介的。证据还表明,虽然预测不确定性对投资判断产生负面影响,但预测精度在缓解这些负面影响方面不起作用。通过补充参与者内部实验,研究进一步发现投资者可能没有意识到预测精度如何影响他们对预测可靠性的判断。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysts’ Earnings per Share Forecasts: The Effects of Forecast Uncertainty and Forecast Precision on Investor Judgements
This study uses controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast uncertainty and forecast precision on investor judgements. It finds that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast reliability judgements such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgements of forecast reliability are more negative when an analyst's point earnings per share (EPS) forecast is rounded than when it is precise. In addition, the relationship between forecast precision and investors’ judgements of forecast reliability is mediated by investors’ perceptions of forecast attributes. The evidence also suggests that while forecast uncertainty exerts a negative effect on investment judgements, forecast precision does not play a role in mitigating these negative effects. Using a supplementary within‐participants experiment, the study further finds that investors may not be consciously aware of how forecast precision influences their judgements of forecast reliability.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
4.80%
发文量
25
期刊介绍: Since 1965 Abacus has consistently provided a vehicle for the expression of independent and critical thought on matters of current academic and professional interest in accounting, finance and business. The journal reports current research; critically evaluates current developments in theory and practice; analyses the effects of the regulatory framework of accounting, finance and business; and explores alternatives to, and explanations of, past and current practices.
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