{"title":"分析师的每股收益预测:预测不确定性和预测精度对投资者判断的影响","authors":"Clarence Goh","doi":"10.1111/abac.12302","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study uses controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast uncertainty and forecast precision on investor judgements. It finds that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast reliability judgements such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgements of forecast reliability are more negative when an analyst's point earnings per share (EPS) forecast is rounded than when it is precise. In addition, the relationship between forecast precision and investors’ judgements of forecast reliability is mediated by investors’ perceptions of forecast attributes. The evidence also suggests that while forecast uncertainty exerts a negative effect on investment judgements, forecast precision does not play a role in mitigating these negative effects. Using a supplementary within‐participants experiment, the study further finds that investors may not be consciously aware of how forecast precision influences their judgements of forecast reliability.","PeriodicalId":47285,"journal":{"name":"Abacus-A Journal of Accounting Finance and Business Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysts’ Earnings per Share Forecasts: The Effects of Forecast Uncertainty and Forecast Precision on Investor Judgements\",\"authors\":\"Clarence Goh\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/abac.12302\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study uses controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast uncertainty and forecast precision on investor judgements. It finds that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast reliability judgements such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgements of forecast reliability are more negative when an analyst's point earnings per share (EPS) forecast is rounded than when it is precise. In addition, the relationship between forecast precision and investors’ judgements of forecast reliability is mediated by investors’ perceptions of forecast attributes. The evidence also suggests that while forecast uncertainty exerts a negative effect on investment judgements, forecast precision does not play a role in mitigating these negative effects. Using a supplementary within‐participants experiment, the study further finds that investors may not be consciously aware of how forecast precision influences their judgements of forecast reliability.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47285,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Abacus-A Journal of Accounting Finance and Business Studies\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Abacus-A Journal of Accounting Finance and Business Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/abac.12302\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Abacus-A Journal of Accounting Finance and Business Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/abac.12302","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysts’ Earnings per Share Forecasts: The Effects of Forecast Uncertainty and Forecast Precision on Investor Judgements
This study uses controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast uncertainty and forecast precision on investor judgements. It finds that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast reliability judgements such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgements of forecast reliability are more negative when an analyst's point earnings per share (EPS) forecast is rounded than when it is precise. In addition, the relationship between forecast precision and investors’ judgements of forecast reliability is mediated by investors’ perceptions of forecast attributes. The evidence also suggests that while forecast uncertainty exerts a negative effect on investment judgements, forecast precision does not play a role in mitigating these negative effects. Using a supplementary within‐participants experiment, the study further finds that investors may not be consciously aware of how forecast precision influences their judgements of forecast reliability.
期刊介绍:
Since 1965 Abacus has consistently provided a vehicle for the expression of independent and critical thought on matters of current academic and professional interest in accounting, finance and business. The journal reports current research; critically evaluates current developments in theory and practice; analyses the effects of the regulatory framework of accounting, finance and business; and explores alternatives to, and explanations of, past and current practices.