Flood Attenuation Potential of Italian Dams: Sensitivity on Geomorphic and Climatological Factors

Abstract In this work the attenuation potential of flood peaks of 265 large reservoirs all over Italy is analysed, considering a flood management that excludes gates opening and then configures strictly unsupervised attenuation effects. Key factors of dams and related basins are considered to develop a ranking method that can emphasize the interplay between dam geometry and the hydrological processes acting in the upstream watershed. To maintain a homogeneous approach in such a wide geographic area, the attenuation index is computed applying the numerical solution of the differential equation of lakes and only two different standardized hydrograph shapes have been used. An index design flood from the rational method is used as the incoming peak value for each dam, enhancing the use of the results of a recent analysis of all Italian rainfall extremes. Even with a very simple approach, twenty-four different design incoming floods are derived, by varying the shape of the incoming hydrograph and the parameters of the rational method. Exploring the ranking results in all the alternatives, the attenuation potential obtained for all dams demonstrates to be strongly sensitive to the assumptions on the time of concentration and to some rainfall features. On the other hand, the hydrograph shape seems to exert much less influence on the ranking outcome. Results obtained can be useful to studies of wide-area flood frequency analyses, as we highlighted the sensitivity of the rank of attenuation efficiency to hydrologic parameters widely used in the assessment of the design flood peaks in ungauged basins.