COVID-19风险预测模型的验证:PERIL前瞻性队列研究

IF 2.1 4区医学 Q3 VIROLOGY

Future Virology Pub Date : 2023-10-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-07 DOI:10.2217/fvl-2023-0036

Shahd A Mohammedain, Saif Badran, AbdelNaser Y Elzouki, Halla Salim, Ayesha Chalaby, Mya Siddiqui, Yehia Y Hussein, Hanan Abdul Rahim, Lukman Thalib, Mohammed Fasihul Alam, Daoud Al-Badriyeh, Sumaya Al-Maadeed, Suhail Ar Doi

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:本研究旨在对最近开发的用于早期预测进展为严重COVID-19风险的预后模型进行外部验证。患者和方法/材料:在卡塔尔哈马德医疗公司的两家机构中招募初次诊断的患者，包括356名成年人进行分析。COVID-19进展的预测指标均在发病和首次接触卫生系统时进行测量。结果:C统计量为83% (95% CI: 78% ~ 87%)，校正图显示模型校正良好。结论:已发表的新型冠状病毒感染进展预后模型具有良好的判别性和校正性，易于临床应用。

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Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study.

Aim: This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients & methods/materials: Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. Results: The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%-87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion: The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d.

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来源期刊

Future Virology 医学-病毒学

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

3.20%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Future Virology is a peer-reviewed journal that delivers essential information in concise, at-a-glance article formats. Key advances in the field are reported and analyzed by international experts, providing an authoritative but accessible forum for this ever-expanding area of research. It is an interdisciplinary forum for all scientists working in the field today.