中国大豆需求分析

Arif Ludianzah, D. Darsono, Agustono Agustono
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摘要

目的是分析和确定影响大豆需求的因素和大豆需求的敏感性(弹性)水平。基本方法采用描述性分析。在克拉廷摄政有目的地摄取研究地点。数据采用16年(1993-2008)的二次数据(时间序列)进行分析。数据分析采用OLS(普通最小二乘法)与双对数函数,得到弹性系数,在静态和动态分析模型中使用。需求弹性为基于价格弹性的静态模型,大豆需求是非弹性的。从收入弹性来看,大豆属于正常商品。而对于动态分析模型,大豆价格的短期和长期需求弹性均为非弹性,分别为-0,134和-0,1595。这意味着大豆价格每变化1%,对大豆的需求将在短期内减少0.134%,在长期内减少0.1595%。短期居民和长期居民对收入的需求弹性是非弹性的,其值分别为0,094和0,1119。这意味着人口收入每变化1%,大豆需求短期增长0.094%,长期增长0.1119%。人口的短期需求弹性和长期需求弹性分别为2150和25595。这意味着人口收入变化1%将使大豆需求在短期内增加2150%,在长期内增加25595%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of Soybean Demand in Klaten Regency
The aims are to analyze and identify the factors that affect demand for soybeans and the level of sensitivity (elasticity) demand of soybean in Klaten Regency. The basic method used descriptive analysis. Intake of study sites in purposive in Klaten Regency. The data is analyzed secondary data (time series) during 16 years (1993-2008). Data analysis using OLS (Ordinary Least Square) with a double logarithmic function, to obtain the coefficient of elasticity that is in use in static and dynamic analysis model. Elasticity of demand for the static model based on price elasticity, demand for soybeans is inelastic. Based on the income elasticity, soy is a normal good. Whereas for a dynamic analysis model, the elasticity of demand for short-term and long term for soybean prices is inelastic with a value of -0,134 and -0,1595. This means a change of 1% soybean prices will reduce demand for soybeans -0,134% in the short term and -0,1595% in the long term. The elasticity of demand for shortterm and long-term residents for revenue is inelastic with a value of 0,094 and 0,1119. This means that changes in population income by 1% would raise soybean demand for 0.094% in the short term and 0,1119% in the long term. The elasticity of demand for short-term and long term for the total population is elastic with a value of 2,150 and 2,5595. This means that changes in population income by 1% would raise soybean demand for 2,150% in the short term and 2,5595% in the long term.
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