基于净收入的乘数作为国内垂直整合油气公司投资吸引力的指标

O. V. Shimko
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摘要

主题。本文重点关注2008年至2018年间25家领先的上市石油和天然气公司的市值与净收入比率。本文旨在确定油气公司市值与公司净收入比率价值变化的关键趋势,以及在研究期间其变化的关键趋势,并确定导致这些变化的因素。在研究中,我采用了比较分析、财务分析和经济分析的方法,总结了财务报告数据。本文发现,由于油价的波动,基于股东净收入的乘数对于评估油气公司的价值几乎没有用处。综合公司不像独立公司那样依赖油价。净收入不仅会受到收入减少的影响,还会受到油价下跌时资产减值、重估或注销成本的影响,因此,在行业盈利能力高的情况下,建议使用乘数。净收入也可能受到与经营活动无关的收入和费用的影响。在选择模拟公司时应考虑到这一因素。据透露,该行业公司市值的特点反映在指标中,包括已证实的储备准备金和债务水平。如果债务负担差异明显,乘数中最好使用企业价值指标,而不是市值指标。结论和相关性。面对全球油气行业股票市场部门盈利能力下降和债务负担增加的情况,应用基于净收入的乘数是非常困难的。这些发现可以作为比较方法的一部分,帮助评估油气资产的价值,并决定提高上市油气公司市值的行动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Multipliers based on net income as an indicator of the investment attractiveness of domestic vertically integrated oil and gas companies
Subject. This article focuses on the market-capitalization-to-net-income ratios of the twenty five leading publicly traded oil and gas companies within 2008 through 2018. Objectives. The article aims to identify key trends in the changes in the values of market-capitalization-to-corporations'-net-income ratios of the oil and gas companies, as well as identify key trends in their change within the studied period, and identify the factors that caused those changes. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of comparative, financial and economic analyses, summarizing financial reporting data. Results. The article finds that the studied multipliers based on net income of shareholders are of little use for assessing the value of oil and gas companies due to the volatility of oil prices. Integrated corporations are not as dependent on oil prices as independent companies. Net income can be affected not only by a decrease in revenue, but also by the cost of impairment, revaluation or write-off of assets in the event of a fall in oil prices, and therefore, the use of the multipliers is advisable in case of high profitability in the industry. Net income may also be affected by income and expenses that are not related to operating activities. This factor should be taken into account when choosing an analogue company. It was revealed that the characteristic features of the market capitalization of companies in the industry are reflected in the indicators, which include the provision with proved reserves and level of debt. It is better to use an enterprise value indicator instead of market capitalization in a multiplier if there is a noticeable difference in debt burden. Conclusions and Relevance. To apply the multipliers based on net income is very difficult in the face of declining profitability and increasing debt burden in the stock market sector of the global oil and gas industry. The findings can help appraise the value of oil and gas assets as part of a comparative approach and decide on actions for raising the market capitalization of publicly traded oil and gas corporations.
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