结果不确定度确定方法的理论基础为经济计量,采用独立专家评价方法进行

Y. Pozdnyakov, I. Bratishko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文对资产产权领域的独立专家评估进行了研究。在这些经济测度的基础上,探讨了专家评估结果不确定度方法的理论基础。考虑了基于评价结果区间形式表示的评价结果不确定度定量确定的概率计量方法原理的实证性。分析了国内外评价标准对评价结果不确定度的要求。描述并实施了评价结果准确性、客观定量指标的方法。事实证明,在信息论和计量误差理论规律应用的基础上,可以确定经济计量实施中的估值结果误差水平。结果表明,在应用比较销售和收入方法的情况下,可以根据类似的财产调整后的单单位价值指标或租金率行统计处理,以置信区间限制的数值形式确定给定置信概率水平的不确定性。制定这些经济计量执行时必须满足的条件。论述了采用计量方法实施经济计量的主要原则。它是建立在独立的估价结果不确定度定量确定的基础上,在经济计量序列的基础上实施下一结果行统计处理。设定了评估工作精度条件的基本条件、限制条件和原始假设。分析了评价方法进一步改进的可能方向。重点介绍了评估结果不确定度暴露的信息计量方法。结果表明,由于这些结果误差估计,为用客观的定量指标确定估值不确定度提供了机会。并对今后研究的重点方向提出了建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
THEORETICAL BASIS OF RESULTS UNCERTAINTY DETERMINATION METHODOLOGY FOR ECONOMIC MEASUREMENTS, CARRIED OUT BY INDEPENDENT EXPERT EVALUATION METHODS
The article behaves to the field of assets and property rights independent expert appraising/valuation. Theoretical bases, on those economic measurements expert valuation results uncertainty degree methodology is based, are examined. The substantiation of the probabilistic-metrological approach methodology principles to evaluation results uncertainty degree quantitative determination, based on the evaluation result interval form presentation, is considered. The requirements of national and international evaluation standards for the evaluation results uncertainty are analyzed. The methodology of evaluation results accuracy objective quantitative indexes is described and performed. It is well-proven that the level of valuation results errors at economic measurements implementation can be set on the basis of information theory and measurement errors theory laws application. It is shown that in the case of Comparative Sales and Income approaches applying, uncertainties for given levels of confidence probability in the form of numerical values of the confidence interval limits can be established on the basis of similar property adjusted single unit value indicators or rental rate rows statistical processing. The conditions that must be met when these economic measurements performing are formulated. The main principles of the economic measurements implementation using the metrological methodical approach are considered. It is grounded on independent valuation results uncertainty degree quantitative determination on the basis of economic measurements series implementation with next results row statistical processing. Base terms, limitations, original assumptions of that evaluation works accuracy conditions are set. Possible directions of evaluation methodologies further improvement are analyzed. Attention is accented on the informative-metrological approach to valuation results uncertainty degree exposure. It is shown that it gives an opportunity to set the valuation uncertainty degree by objective quantitative indexes, as these results errors estimates. Some recommendations in relation to priority directions of further researches are offered.
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