全球激进伊斯兰主义项目:基地组织和伊斯兰国战略的SWOT分析

Andrey R.nov Suleime
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摘要

本文致力于激进伊斯兰主义的政治项目,旨在建立一个全球性的“伊斯兰”国家。这项研究集中在两种不同的策略上,这两种策略最清楚地表明了全球伊斯兰主义的两个项目之间的分歧。这些项目包括基地组织(“旧”圣战组织的代表)和“伊斯兰国”的战略,后者自然可以被描述为一种全新的激进运动。这项工作的目的是确定这些组织的战略,以及从最适合当前现实的角度对其进行分析。在研究过程中,使用SWOT分析法,确定了两个组织的战略优势和劣势,以及每个组织的威胁和增长机会领域。根据基地组织最高领导层的一些文件和伊斯兰国的宣传材料,注意到各组织由于其理论和方法基础而在战略上存在根本差异。美国分遣队从阿富汗撤出,伊斯兰世界动荡地区局势的迅速变化,为激进组织实施其政治计划提供了广阔的空间。对激进伊斯兰主义战略的研究使预测恐怖组织的进一步行动成为可能。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global radical Islamism projects: a SWOT analysis of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State strategies
This article is devoted to the political projects of radical Islamism aimed at establishing a global «Islamic» state. The study focuses on two different strategies that most clearly demonstrate the split between the two projects of global Islamism. These projects include the strategies of Al-Qaeda (a representative of the «old» jihadist organization) and the «Islamic State», which can naturally be described as a fundamentally new radical movement. The purpose of the work is to identify the strategies of these organizations, as well as their analysis from the point of view of the best adaptation to the realities of the present. In the course of the study, using the SWOT analysis method, the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies of both organizations were identified, as well as areas of threats and growth opportunities for each of them. Based on a number of documents emanating from the top leadership of Al-Qaeda and propaganda materials of the Islamic State, fundamental differences in the strategies of organizations, arising from their doctrinal and methodological basis, are noted. The withdrawal of the American contingent from Afghanistan, the rapidly changing situation in the zone of turbulence in the Islamic world provide radical organizations with a wide field for the implementation of their political projects. The study of the strategies of radical Islamism makes it possible to predict the further actions of terrorist organizations.
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