{"title":"美国的经济体系正在变成什么样子?","authors":"L. Thurow","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.17727","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Turning points are the most difficult events to predict in either economic or human history. In many areas (the weather, the GNP, etc.) the naive statement that tomorrow will be like today predicts as well as most sophisticated models, except that this naive prediction system cannot predict any turning points. And it is precisely the turning points that are of interest. At the moment, we are bombarded with statements that a fundamental long-run economic turning point is at hand. Energy, the environment, shortages of raw materials, or something else is going to force us to change our economic life-styles and institutions dramatically. Which, if any, of these statements are true? Or conversely, what ignored events, if any, might force fundamental, but as yet unrecognized, changes?","PeriodicalId":403502,"journal":{"name":"Increasing Understanding of Public Problems and Policies","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"THE U.S. ECONOMIC SYSTEM -- WHAT IS IT BECOMING?\",\"authors\":\"L. Thurow\",\"doi\":\"10.22004/AG.ECON.17727\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Turning points are the most difficult events to predict in either economic or human history. In many areas (the weather, the GNP, etc.) the naive statement that tomorrow will be like today predicts as well as most sophisticated models, except that this naive prediction system cannot predict any turning points. And it is precisely the turning points that are of interest. At the moment, we are bombarded with statements that a fundamental long-run economic turning point is at hand. Energy, the environment, shortages of raw materials, or something else is going to force us to change our economic life-styles and institutions dramatically. Which, if any, of these statements are true? Or conversely, what ignored events, if any, might force fundamental, but as yet unrecognized, changes?\",\"PeriodicalId\":403502,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Increasing Understanding of Public Problems and Policies\",\"volume\":\"60 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1900-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Increasing Understanding of Public Problems and Policies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.17727\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Increasing Understanding of Public Problems and Policies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.17727","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Turning points are the most difficult events to predict in either economic or human history. In many areas (the weather, the GNP, etc.) the naive statement that tomorrow will be like today predicts as well as most sophisticated models, except that this naive prediction system cannot predict any turning points. And it is precisely the turning points that are of interest. At the moment, we are bombarded with statements that a fundamental long-run economic turning point is at hand. Energy, the environment, shortages of raw materials, or something else is going to force us to change our economic life-styles and institutions dramatically. Which, if any, of these statements are true? Or conversely, what ignored events, if any, might force fundamental, but as yet unrecognized, changes?
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