Greenhouse gas emissions caused by global steel industry: the past, the present and the future

Measures aimed at the transition of the global iron and steel industry to carbon neutrality by 2050 or beyond are in the focus of scientific, business, and political circles of many countries. If this target is to be attained, it is important to understand how demand for ferrous metals will be evolving, and when and to what extent the sector can be modernized on the low carbon basis. The paper explores the possibility and conditions for the full-scale decarbonization of the global iron and steel sector, looks into current trends in the production of key products of steel industry and related greenhouse gas emissions; estimates the contributions of all the factors behind these trends in 1900‒2019. By analyzing the relations between the economic growth and ferrous metals consumption as “services‒materials stock‒materials flow‒environment” model, the paper shows that a mechanical extrapolation of the earlier trends to 2050 and beyond may result in erroneous conclusions about the sector’s development perspectives. The factors that will eventually ensure the decoupling, i.e. a dramatic weakening or a complete rupture of the connection between economic growth and steel demand. The paper provides an analysis of the iron and steel sector decarbonization perspectives and estimates the scale and intensity of the forthcoming technological change.