走钢丝:美国州政府和地方政府是否走在财政可持续的道路上?

Bo Zhao, David Coyne
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引用次数: 6

摘要

本文开发了一种新的衡量州和地方财政可持续性的方法,称为“趋势差距”,它基于社会经济和其他基本因素,并消除了商业周期的短期影响。本文对趋势差距进行了估算,发现在过去30年里,全国人均趋势差距一直在扩大,这一结论与以往的研究结果不同。社会保险和收入维持计划在趋势差距的扩大中发挥了主要作用,而养老金和其他离职后福利(OPEB)计划在推动趋势差距扩大方面也变得越来越重要。此外,各州之间的趋势差距也越来越大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Walking a Tightrope: Are U.S. State and Local Governments on a Fiscally Sustainable Path?
This paper develops a new measure of state and local fiscal sustainability called the "trend gap," which is based on socioeconomic and other fundamental factors and removes the short-term influence of the business cycle. The paper estimates the trend gap and finds that the nationwide per capita trend gap has been on a growing path over the past three decades, a different conclusion than found in previous studies. Social insurance and income maintenance programs have played a major role in the growth of the trend gap, while pension and other post-employment benefits (OPEB) plans have become increasingly important in driving it up. In addition, there are large and growing disparities in the trend gap across states.
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