基于模型融合的风电机组功率预测研究

Xiuxia Zhang, Jian Hao, Shuyi Wei
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引用次数: 0

摘要

风电输出受多种因素影响,其变化趋势复杂,难以采用单一的预测方法对风电进行有效预测。良好的电力预测模型对合理的能源调度、需求管理和节能减排具有重要意义。本文在经典机器学习模型的基础上,融合多个模型进行电力预测和能源性能优化。使用多个算法模型作为基础学习器来融合预测结果的权重,以保持特征的相关性。然后,将权重融合模型作为基础学习器进行训练,通过叠加模型融合得到更高层次的模型,并与多个经典算法模型进行比较,综合出性能最好的能量预测模型。通过比较,多模型融合的功率预测模型具有更高的运行速度和精度,在功率预测中具有更高的性能。结果表明,经典算法模型的多模型融合可以有效提高功率预测的精度,从而获得性能最好的功率预测模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on Wind Turbine Power Prediction Based on Model Fusion
Wind power output is influenced by many factors, and its changing trend is complex, so it is difficult to use a single forecasting method to effectively forecast wind power. Moreover, an excellent power prediction model will have a significant impact on rational energy dispatching, demand management, energy conservation and emission reduction. In this paper, based on the classic machine learning model, multiple models are fused to predict the power and optimize the performance of energy. A number of algorithm models are used as base learners to fuse the weights of the prediction results to keep the feature relevance. Then, the weight fusion models are also used as base learners for training, and further high-level models are obtained through Stacking model fusion, which is compared with a number of classical algorithm models to synthesize the best performance energy prediction model. By comparison, the power prediction model fused by multiple models has higher running speed and accuracy, and higher performance in energy power prediction. The results show that the multiple model fusion of classical algorithm models can effectively improve the accuracy of power prediction, thus obtaining the best performance power prediction model.
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