概率选择与风险分析——电力系统规划中的冲突与综合

Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Power Industry Computer Applications Pub Date : 1997-05-11 DOI:10.1109/PICA.1997.599368

Vladimiro Miranda, L. M. Proença

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引用次数: 137

摘要

本文阐述了在不确定情景下电力系统规划中采用期货概率加权策略与风险规避策略在概念上的区别。以一个配电规划问题为例，其中两种情况下的最优解均由遗传算法确定。结果表明，概率方法的安全性较差，不能检测到一些有趣的解。

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Probabilistic choice vs. risk analysis-conflicts and synthesis in power system planning

This paper shows the conceptual differences between adopting a probabilistic weighting of the futures and a risk averse strategy, in power system planning under uncertain scenarios. It is illustrated with a distribution planning problem, where optimal solutions in both cases are determined by a genetic algorithm. It shows that the probabilistic approach is less safe and cannot detect some interesting solutions.

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Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Power Industry Computer Applications

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