{"title":"基于区间比中值长度的二因子高阶模糊时间序列短期交通流预测","authors":"Liang Zhao, Fei-Yue Wang","doi":"10.1109/ICVES.2007.4456387","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Due to the complexity of traffic flow characteristics, the traditional statistical regression models have been unsuitable for the traffic flow prediction. And thereby the paper proposes the fuzzy time series method to predict short- term traffic flow. First, we proposes an improved fuzzy time series prediction model, i.e. , ratio-median lengths of intervals two-factors high-order fuzzy time series. The prediction model simultaneously considers impact of many factors on the traffic flow formulation. For achieving higher prediction accuracy, the ratio-median lengths of intervals method is adopted to adaptively partition the universe of discourse of linguistic variable. Then it is used to predict the raw traffic flow data which are collected at Zizhu Bridge in Beijing. The experiment result verifies that the improved fuzzy time series prediction model can achieve high prediction accuracy.","PeriodicalId":202772,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Vehicular Electronics and Safety","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2007-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"16","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Short-term traffic flow prediction based on ratio-median lengths of intervals two-factors high-order fuzzy time series\",\"authors\":\"Liang Zhao, Fei-Yue Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/ICVES.2007.4456387\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Due to the complexity of traffic flow characteristics, the traditional statistical regression models have been unsuitable for the traffic flow prediction. And thereby the paper proposes the fuzzy time series method to predict short- term traffic flow. First, we proposes an improved fuzzy time series prediction model, i.e. , ratio-median lengths of intervals two-factors high-order fuzzy time series. The prediction model simultaneously considers impact of many factors on the traffic flow formulation. For achieving higher prediction accuracy, the ratio-median lengths of intervals method is adopted to adaptively partition the universe of discourse of linguistic variable. Then it is used to predict the raw traffic flow data which are collected at Zizhu Bridge in Beijing. The experiment result verifies that the improved fuzzy time series prediction model can achieve high prediction accuracy.\",\"PeriodicalId\":202772,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"2007 IEEE International Conference on Vehicular Electronics and Safety\",\"volume\":\"46 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2007-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"16\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"2007 IEEE International Conference on Vehicular Electronics and Safety\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICVES.2007.4456387\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Vehicular Electronics and Safety","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICVES.2007.4456387","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Short-term traffic flow prediction based on ratio-median lengths of intervals two-factors high-order fuzzy time series
Due to the complexity of traffic flow characteristics, the traditional statistical regression models have been unsuitable for the traffic flow prediction. And thereby the paper proposes the fuzzy time series method to predict short- term traffic flow. First, we proposes an improved fuzzy time series prediction model, i.e. , ratio-median lengths of intervals two-factors high-order fuzzy time series. The prediction model simultaneously considers impact of many factors on the traffic flow formulation. For achieving higher prediction accuracy, the ratio-median lengths of intervals method is adopted to adaptively partition the universe of discourse of linguistic variable. Then it is used to predict the raw traffic flow data which are collected at Zizhu Bridge in Beijing. The experiment result verifies that the improved fuzzy time series prediction model can achieve high prediction accuracy.