中国股票价格指数与宏观经济变量关系的实证分析

Meng Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

股票价格指数与宏观经济变量之间的关系一直是经济学领域的热门话题。本文从实证分析的角度出发,以2016年1月至2021年3月的月度数据为基础,对股价指数与工业生产、货币供应量、利率、储蓄、物价指数等宏观经济变量的关系进行了单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰检验和脉冲响应分析。结果表明:股票价格指数与长期利率、储蓄呈负相关;而股价指数与工业生产和短期利率呈正相关;此外,股票价格指数与货币供应初期和通货膨胀呈正相关,与货币供应后期和通货膨胀呈负相关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Stock Price Index and Macroeconomic Variables in China
: The relationship between the stock price index and the macroeconomic variables has always been the hot topic in the economics field. From the point of view of empirical analysis, this paper made Unit-Root Test, Co-integration Analysis, Granger Test and Impulse Response Analysis on the relationship between the stock price index and macroeconomic variables such as industrial production, money supply, interest rate, save and price index based on the monthly data from January in 2016 to March in 2021. The result shows that there exists the negative relationship between stock price index and long-term interest rate and save; while the stock price index is positive with industrial production and short-term interest rate; furthermore, there exists the positive relationship between stock price index and the initial stages of the money supply and inflation, while the stock price index is negative with the later period of the money supply and inflation.
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