澳大利亚防务标准贝叶斯可靠性论证

S.W. Yates
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引用次数: 5

摘要

可靠性论证的贝叶斯方法已由澳大利亚国防部(Defence)开发并记录在一本手册中。在指数分布和威布尔分布下,为解决与成功概率和平均故障间隔时间有关的可靠性演示要求提供了灵活性。该手册主要以以前记录的工作为基础,大部分新工作专门用于确保该方法能够在合同环境中实际应用。先前的工作通过贝叶斯定理的加权似然形式来处理贝叶斯可靠性论证问题,并结合了基于每个测试阶段后满足需求的概率的顺序测试方法。开发了一个八步流程,包括适用性的确定、约束条件的规范、权重的确定、先验构造、所需证据的确定、先验测试、测试和更新以及可靠性估计。在撰写本手册时,尚未确定手册的试点项目,但注意到在手册之外存在贝叶斯可靠性演示活动。人们希望这将导致更多地接受贝叶斯技术,并假设这些技术最终将成为国防可靠性论证的首选方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Australian defence standard for Bayesian reliability demonstration
A Bayesian approach to reliability demonstration has been developed by the Australian Department of Defence (Defence) and documented in a handbook. Flexibility was provided to address reliability demonstration requirements relating to probability of success and mean time between failure under both the exponential and Weibull distributions. The handbook was based largely on prior work documented and with the majority of the new work dedicated to ensuring the approach could be practically applied in a contractual environment. The prior work approached the Bayesian reliability demonstration issue through the weighted likelihood form of Bayes' Theorem and incorporated a sequential testing methodology based on the probability of achieving the requirement after each testing phase. An eight step process was developed, consisting of determination of applicability, specification of constraints, determination of weights, construction of the prior, determination of evidence required, testing of the prior, testing and updating and reliability estimation. No pilot project for the handbook had been identified at the time of writing, but the existence of a Bayesian reliability demonstration activity outside of the handbook was noted. It was hoped that this would lead to increased acceptance of Bayesian techniques and postulated that these would eventually become the preferred method of reliability demonstration for Defence.
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