应对COVID-19:对美国股市泡沫的评估

Hua Bai, Jing He, Ruorong Liu, Jing Sun, Di Wu
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摘要

当前,新冠肺炎疫情深刻影响着人类社会的方方面面。在经济全球化进程中,疫情对各国实体经济产生负面影响,不可避免地导致失业率上升。国际股市也经常波动。然而,美国股市却出现了不寻常的现象。美国股市在2020年3月经历了3天的崩盘后,一直走高。因此,本研究在全球疫情背景下识别当前股票市场的机遇和风险。一些投资者认为,由于周期性和流行病的负面影响,股市蕴藏着巨大的机会,而另一些人则认为,由于美联储的政策,这是虚假的繁荣,给投资者释放了错误的信号。本研究通过研究大流行病下的GDP和就业率,美联储在大流行病下的干预和进一步的影响,房地产对股市的影响,股指,来探讨在目前繁荣的表象下,股市是否存在潜在的泡沫。结果表明,美国正面临高失业率、潜在的巨大GDP损失、股市泡沫、高通货膨胀率、高估风险等问题。这项研究表明,美国股市存在泡沫。因此,投资者需要认识到潜在的风险,进行合理的投资组合。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Response to COVID-19: Assessment of the Bubbles in U.S. Stock Market
At present, COVID-19 pandemic has profound influence on every aspect of human society. Due to economic globalization, the pandemic exert negative impact on real economy of all countries, and inevitably lead to higher unemployment rate. International stock market also fluctuate frequently. However, uncommon phenomenon has been noticed in the U.S. stock market. After 3 days' market crash in March, 2020, the US stock has kept trading higher. Therefore, this research identifies the current stock market's opportunities and risks under the background of the global pandemic situation. Some investors contend that in the stock market there lies great opportunities, owing to the negative effects of periodicity and pandemic, while others claim that it is the fake boom that releases wrong signals for investors due to the Fed’s policy. Through the research on GDP and employment rate under pandemic, FED’s intervention under pandemic and further impacts, the impact of real estate on the stock market, and stock index, this study aims to explore whether there lies a potential stock market bubble under its current prosper appearance. The results indicate that the U.S. is suffering from a high unemployment rate, potential great GDP loss, stock market bubbles, high inflation rate, the risk of overvaluing, etc. This study reveals that a bubble exists in the U.S. stock market. Therefore, the investors need to recognize the potential risks and conduct a reasonable portfolio.
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