有效下限下的社会学习与货币政策

Jasmina Arifovic, A. Grimaud, I. Salle, Gauthier Vermandel
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文的第一个贡献是建立了一个模型,该模型可以共同解释大衰退(Great Recession)后缺失的反通胀,以及随后观察到的无通胀复苏。关键机制是通过异质预期来发挥作用的,这些预期可能会长期失去对央行目标的依赖,并在特别持久的低于目标的路径上协调。我们通过匹配宏观经济和专业预测者调查数据的矩来共同估计模型的结构参数和学习参数。如果中央银行向代理人传达其目标或其自身的通胀预测,则与这些动态相关的福利成本可能会降低,因为沟通有助于将预期锚定在目标上。然而,一旦央行的声明与实际通胀脱钩,比如在面对巨大而意外的冲击时,央行就可能失去可信度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound
The first contribution of this paper is to develop a model that jointly accounts for the missing disinflation in the wake of the Great Recession and the subsequently observed inflation-less recovery. The key mechanism works through heterogeneous expectations that may durably lose their anchorage to the central bank (CB)’s target and coordinate on particularly persistent below-target paths. We jointly estimate the structural and the learning parameters of the model by matching moments from both macroeconomic and Survey of Professional Forecasters data. The welfare cost associated with those dynamics may be reduced if the CB communicates to the agents its target or its own inflation forecasts, as communication helps anchor expectations at the target. However, the CB may lose its credibility whenever its announcements become decoupled from actual inflation, for instance in the face of large and unexpected shocks.
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