原油价格非线性分析对巴基斯坦国内通货膨胀的影响

Muhammad Yasin Abid, Abdul Ghafoor, M. Javed, M. Amjad
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引用次数: 3

摘要

新冠肺炎疫情和俄乌战争严重扰乱了能源供应链,导致全球范围内出现大规模通货膨胀。这种通货膨胀严重影响了发展中国家,因为这些国家的贫困人口。本研究利用1980年至2020年的年度时间序列数据,通过考虑全球原油价格(COP)能源价格,探讨了巴基斯坦通货膨胀的不同决定因素。本研究使用CPI作为因变量来衡量通货膨胀,而COP是通过控制汇率、GDP和汇款来衡量通货膨胀的关键自变量。采用非线性ARDL计量方法对实证结果进行了估计。研究提出COP与CPI呈u型关系。此外,外国汇款和人均国内生产总值也有助于国内通货膨胀。目前的研究表明,政府应该采取措施减少对进口能源的依赖,以使巴基斯坦繁荣。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of Non-linear Analysis of Crude Oil Prices on Domestic Inflation in Pakistan
Post-COVID-19 outbreaks and the Russian-Ukraine war seriously disturb the energy supply chain, which causes massive inflation worldwide. This inflation badly affected developing countries because of the poor population living in these countries. This study explores the different determinants of inflation in Pakistan by considering the global crude oil prices (COP) energy prices by using the annual time series data from 1980 to 2020. This study measured inflation by using CPI as the dependent variable, while COP was the key independent variable by controlling the exchange rate, GDP, and remittances. The empirical results are estimated by using the non-linear ARDL econometric approach. The study proposes the U-shaped relationship of COP with CPI. Furthermore, foreign remittance and GDP per capita also contribute to domestic inflation. The present study suggests that government should take steps to decrease dependence on imported energy resources to make Pakistan prosperous.
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